004
FXUS64 KLIX 152355
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
655 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A broad upper level low pressure system that has dominated the
Southeastern CONUS for the past few days will continue to bring a
risk of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through
Tuesday evening. This increased convective activity will be
driven by a combination of near average PWATS around 1.75 inches,
upper level forcing, and diurnal instability as SBCAPE peaks
between 1000 and 1500 J/KG each afternoon. Convective activity
will tend to peak in the afternoon hours and wane in the overnight
hours each day. There will also be a gradient to the POP values as
the deeper moisture and strongest forcing will be located across
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area including
southern Mississippi and the Northshore both Monday and Tuesday.
This area will see POP peak between 40 and 60 percent tomorrow and
30 to 40 percent on Tuesday. Temperature spread between the 25th
and 75th percentiles in the NBM is small, so have stuck with NBM
deterministic output for both highs and lows in the short term
period. This keeps temperatures near average both Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

By Wednesday, the upper level low is expected to pull well east of
the region, and a strong upper level ridge with increasing deep
layer subsidence and drier air will build over the forecast area.
The end result will be an extended period of limited cloud
development, lower humidity, no rain chances, and near to slightly
warmer than average high temperatures from Wednesday through
Saturday. Overnight lows will easily cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s due to the dry airmass in place. Once again, there is
not a large degree of spread in the model solutions, so the
temperature forecast follows the NBM deterministic output closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Terminals were all VFR at forecast issuance time, and expect that
to last rhough the evening hours. Can`t totally rule out a
SHRA/TSRA over the next 2 hours at KHUM. MVFR ceilings likely to
develop again before sunrise with at least some threat of IFR or
lower conditions. Areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA likely to be a bit
greater on Monday afternoon than today, with MVFR ceilings likely
and perhaps brief IFR visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Very weak gradient flow over the coastal waters will remain in
place through the end of the week, and this will keep winds below
10 knots and seas below 2 feet. These benign conditions will
occasionally be interrupted by scattered convective activity
producing locally gusty winds and waterspouts, but overall no
significant impacts to maritime activities are forecast through
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  84  68  83 /  10  70  30  30
BTR  70  87  71  86 /   0  40  20  30
ASD  70  86  70  84 /  10  40  30  40
MSY  73  85  74  84 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  72  83  71  83 /  10  40  30  40
PQL  72  83  70  84 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG