584
FXUS64 KLIX 012355
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
655 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

It will be hot, hot, hot for the short term forecast with the
chance (30-40%) for rainfall from showers and storms daily in the
afternoons and early evenings. Looking at the models, there will
be the potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon and early evening as peak daytime heating occurs. These
storms are not expected to be severe, but lightning and brief
locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside of any storms that
develop.

Otherwise, it will be HOT! Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 90s
and approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Heat Index Values
will be approaching 118 degrees for most of our area.
Consequently, the Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow for those areas from 10AM to
7PM CT. S MS areas and coastal LA areas are expected to see heat
index values approaching 112 degrees tomorrow afternoon. As a
result, a heat advisory is in effect for these areas tomorrow from
10AM to 7PM CT. Remember to hydrate frequently and take lots of
breaks if spending time outdoors! The overnight lows will not get
below 80 degrees for many locations, which will contribute to more
heat stress on the body as well. And for urban locations, keep in
mind that the heat will linger longer into the evening hours as
well. Practice heat safety and try to keep cool for the next
couple days where possible! MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper level ridge continues to keep hold of the weather pattern
Wednesday in our area. It will slowly drift eastward and weakens a
little Friday which will let a small reprieve in the scorching
temperatures we have been having the past several times, with heat
index values either right at or below heat advisory criteria.  We
still will have high PWs as well, so the usual diurnally driven 30-
60% chances of showers and storms, with the better chances further
south towards the coastal areas.

We still continue to watch Beryl, the official NHC forecast
currently has Beryl weakening and going into southern Mexico, but as
always we will monitor the situation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Thunderstorms are currently impacting western terminals such as
BTR and HUM. Expect that activity to dissipate shortly after
sunset around 03z this evening. After that, VFR conditions will
prevail through the night and into tomorrow morning. Current
high-res guidance suggests convective development will take place
across the western half of the area tomorrow around 20-22z. So,
VCTS has been mentioned at those terminals to account for the lack
of confidence in exactly where those storms will go.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Benign marine conditions with mostly southerly and calm to
moderate winds (10-15kts) expected for the marine forecast
overall. Winds will be northerly briefly tonight through tomorrow
morning. Showers and storms will be possible daily, which could
cause locally higher winds and seas as they develop. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  98  76  93 /  20  20  10  70
BTR  79 101  81  95 /  20  40   0  80
ASD  78  98  79  93 /  10  40  20  80
MSY  81  97  81  93 /  20  50  20  90
GPT  78  96  79  90 /  10  40  30  70
PQL  77  98  79  93 /  10  40  40  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ066>070.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ066>070.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068-
     077-083>088.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068-
     077-083>088.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ069>071.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSW