111
FXUS64 KLIX 271137
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Will likely replace Small Craft Advisory with Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines for the tidal lakes at 7 AM CDT. Too soon to
make adjustments elsewhere based on current observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Weakening Hurricane Helene racing north-northeast through
Georgia. Upper low centered near Memphis helping to accelerate
hurricane northward. Both are helping to pump cooler and drier air
into the local area. This will keep the local area dry through
Saturday. Only real forecast question is whether cloud cover
associated with the upper low sinks southward into northern and
eastern areas later tonight and Saturday. For now, operating under
the idea of partly cloudy skies for southwest Mississippi
overnight. Most guidance pretty close for the next 36 hours and
won`t make any radical departures from such.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Upper low will take up residence over Kentucky from Saturday into
early next week, although GFS operational is quite a bit further
east in Kentucky than the ECMWF operational. Upper ridging over
Florida should keep the local area dry through much of next week.
Will allow NBM numbers to ride through Thursday, as no large
departures from guidance, with temperatures running above seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Wrap around
clouds associated with the upper low near Memphis could produce
ceilings overnight at KMCB, but bases won`t be low enough to
produce flight restrictions. Potential exists for wind gusts in
excess of 20 knots at KNEW in particular during the day, but
should relax during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Winds are currently sufficient over all waters to maintain
ongoing Small Craft Advisory. Will probably be able to clear tidal
lakes and sounds by late morning. However, even if winds drop off
over the open waters, seas will remain sufficient for advisories
for much or all of the open waters through expiration time. May
need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines through the overnight
hours tonight in eastern waters, but beyond that point, should be
a much quieter scenario through the remainder of the marine
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  88  66  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  85  67  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  85  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  84  68  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  87  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW