Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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867 FXUS64 KLIX 221644 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1144 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Tide levels still rising above minor flood stage at the Wavleand gage, so a coastal flood advisory has been issued for southern Hancock County. Water will cover some of the lowest lying roads around Bay St. Louis and Waveland, especially in the Shoreline Park areas. With high tide levels not expected to drop substantially for the next couple days, have issued it through 7pm tomorrow evening, but it will likely need to be extended for Monday and possibly Tuesday`s high tides as well. The highest water can generally be expected between 10a and 3p as high tide is currently occurring around midday. Elsewhere, any impact is currently expected to be minimal. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A strong 596 DAM H5 ridge stretches from the Tennessee River Valley westward to the TX Panhandle this morning. This is helping keep the upper levels very dry with plenty of subsidence taking place across our CWFA. That said, precip chances remain low through much of the short term period with perhaps a nonzero chance for a shower or two during the diurnal season. At the surface, high pressure will be in control and should continue to limit surface winds across the region. With higher heights and thicknesses, expect above average temperatures with most locations climbing into the middle and upper 90s with heat index values warming into the lower to mid 100s or just shy of heat advisory thresholds. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The hot and dry regime from the short term period will continue into the long term period to start the new workweek. The mid level high along with the surface high will remain locked into the region. Eventually, eyes begin to shift upstream closer the lower appalachians by Tuesday and into Wednesday. A weak front will move southward and near our region by Tuesday. This weak feature should stall and wash out. However, better low level moisture will be moving into the region from the south. The interaction between this weak front and daily lake/sea breeze etc may help bring an increase to shower and storm activity basically from Tuesday onward. Eventually, as the week progresses the surface high will continue to spread eastward again allowing for a rich return flow to set up. Another weak front moves southward toward our region by the end of the forecast period. Once again, this should interact with local lake and sea breezes allowing for a bit higher rain chances...again as we go from midweek to late week. As for temperatures, conditions will remain hot. The strong H5 heat bubble will remain mostly over the region through midweek or so. Prior to heights/thicknesses lowering by late Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures should warm well into the 90s with some locations not far from the 100F threshold. That said, heat advisory conditions should be met, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday despite the slight increase in rain chances. Think most of the precip would occur late in the day after the warmest part is realized. Temperatures lower a degree or two toward the end of the forecast period as heights and thicknesses decrease. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period under the influence of high pressure with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Mostly favorable marine conditions expected through the weekend and through the period. High pressure will continue to build into the region, which will limit surface winds and finally redirect the low level fetch from the western Caribbean. Outside of modest increasing in winds and seas in and around diurnally driven convection, again overall quiet for now. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 BTR 97 76 98 78 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 94 73 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 93 77 94 78 / 0 0 20 0 GPT 93 75 93 77 / 0 0 10 0 PQL 96 73 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DM SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...DM MARINE...RDF