Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
763 FXUS65 KLKN 252018 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 118 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Increasing showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada this afternoon will move into much of northern and eastern Nevada by Wednesday. However, very dry conditions will remain across northwestern Humboldt county along with gusty west- southwest winds will promote critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with hot temperatures returning for the weekend along with dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night Considerable push of mid to upper-level moisture underway across southern and central Nevada with GOES-18 satellite showing mid- level clouds streaming northeastward along with a few (likely virga) showers on radar reaching into southern Humboldt and the Battle Mountain area. Convective environment is not too unstable with so widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected although instability remains through late tonight with nocturnal thunderstorms expected across portions of central Nevada. Temperatures remain hot in the 90s in many valleys with a very dry subcloud layer still in place, prime for gusty outflow winds from elevated showers and thunderstorms. In addition, hot daytime temperatures and elevated overnight lows will continue to present a heat risk across the West Wendover and surrounding lower elevation areas through Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the 70s tonight. Convective debris from this afternoon`s convection will advect northeastern overnight but significant rainfall is not expected along the I-80 corridor. More widespread showers and thunderstorms within a more unstable and moisture atmospheric profile combined with an subtle upper-level short wave moving through the region are expected across the eastern half of Nevada Wednesday. Chance of wetting rains of one tenth of an inch or more are greatest across northeastern ELko county along with White Pine county with probabilities approaching 45% in some places. Moisture is quickly scoured away from west to east Wednesday night as the trough and cold front push through the area. Lows Wednesday night will be a bit more comfortable dropping into the 50s as opposed to the lower 60s tonight. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday Thursday, some lingering showers and thunderstorms from overnight across portions of eastern Nevada, should taper off west to east as the cold front and associated trough responsible for producing the active weather also progresses eastward throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. High temperatures will generally range in the upper 70s to mid 80s across and north of the I-80 corridor, and upper 80s to lower 90s south of the I-80 corridor. Night time lows are expected to range in the low 40s across the north, to low 50s across central Nevada. Friday upper level flow remains somewhat zonal, resulting in dry weather and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s. Saturday, breezy condtions can be expected with the next approaching system nearing the state. Strong Southwesterly winds on the leading edge of a trough will encompass central Nevada, 20-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph possible at Ely and Tonopah. Winds further north will be westerly and slightly weaker (15-20 gusting to 25-30 mph). Some upper level convergence across Lander and Eureka counties will be an area to keep an eye on if some orographic forcing could get anything going. However, nothing is expected at this current time. Temperatures will get up into the low to mid 90s for much of the area due to the surge of southerly winds. Lows are expected to bottom out in the mid 50s. Sunday the upper level trough axis will progress over the state, producing some favorable areas of lift across northern Nevada, along with a fair amount of bulk shear and marginal CAPE. This is expected to be enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunder showers across the ID/NV boarder. Strong to gusty winds will still be present with the trough passage with west to southwest winds gusting to 30-40 mph. If current guidance holds with gusty westerly winds, blowing dust or smoke from any fires in California could advect into the region. Temperatures cool but only slightly as highs are expected to range in the 80s to low 90s during the day, with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday and Tuesday look dry as the weekend trough departed the region Sunday night and the next system looks to approach by mid- week. Highs will generally range in the 80s to low 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Additional mid to upper-level moisture continues to move into central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon, allowing for more widespread convection including isolated dry thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Showers and some nocturnal thunderstorms may remain around KELY and KTPH through 12Z Wednesday before showers tapper tapper off. Convection returns to eastern NV anytime after 18Z with Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across KELY, and as well as east of and including KEKO. These storms increase in coverage around 20Z and expand to include KTPH. && .FIRE WEATHER...Increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected across central Nevada this evening reaching into northeastern and eastern Nevada by tonight. The initial surge of mid-level moisture is strong, however, will take some time to mix out the very dry sub-cloud layer in place so initial showers and thunderstorms will be mostly dry with gusty outflow winds and some cloud to ground lightning. Moisture will largely stay east of Humboldt county where critical fire weather conditions including gusty west- southwest winds and RH below 15% are expected across fire zone 437 Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread across the eastern half of Nevada Wednesday afternoon with a higher likelihood of thunderstorms (30-40% chance in some areas in northern Elko and eastern White Pine county) as a more unstable atmosphere develops in the afternoon. A cold front and associated upper- level disturbance will push most of the moisture out of the region Thursday lowering humidity and temperatures for much of the northern and eastern Nevada. Dry conditions and temperatures back up into the 90s return Friday and Saturday with another upper- level disturbance acting to increase winds across the state along with bringing a few showers and thunderstorms along the ID/NV border Sunday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County-Quinn. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 93/91/91/93