Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
909 FXUS65 KLKN 241009 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 309 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions persist today. Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday to much of the region, with temperatures remaining above normal. Winds become breezy over NW Nevada Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Dry today with continued well above normal temperatures. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for eastern Elko county (today through Wednesday evening) due to hot afternoons coupled with very warm overnight low temperatures which will limit relief from the heat. More active weather begins on Tuesday as central and northern NV will be wedged between trough energy just off the Pacific NW coast and high pressure building in from the four-corners region of the desert southwest. Increasing mid-level moisture moving in under the approaching ridge in combination with enhanced lift and instability will produce thunderstorms over portions central and northern NV on Tuesday. Best chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Tuesday will be along and south of the Highway 50 corridor. There will however be a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms over much of the CWA north of the Highway 50 corridor too. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Synoptic setup Wednesday morning defined by continued high pressure situated over the four corners region with an upper low and parent trof moving from west to east into the PacNW and B.C. Canada. An increase in mid level moisture is expected as the flow pattern shifts in accordance with the progressing low. A frontal boundary will move into the forecast area form the northwest providing a 20% to 30% probability for a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across mainly eastern Nevada on Wednesday. Models have become a bit more bullish on precipitation, favoring wet storm modes which is also in line with the latest progs, indicating PWAT values greater than 0.75 for some locales. Mostly dry Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms potentially lingering over the high terrain of White Pine County. Breezy conditions can also be expected with gusts around 30 mph. By Friday the trof continues to progress east thru Utah and into Colorado with the high pressure center situated over the four corners region also migrating east again and into the southeastern U.S. Weather remains dry Saturday and Sunday with zonal flow turning southwesterly thru the Friday to Sunday time frame. The typical afternoon breezes are expected. Potential for another shortwave trof to move thru from the PacNW in the Monday time frame. Temperatures will moderate some mid week in conjunction with the passage of the trof and frontal boundary. Daytime highs by Thursday look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across northern Elko and Humboldt Counties, with temperatures remaining warm and in the low to mid 90s across much of northern Nye County. Overnight lows range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Slight warm up indicated for the weekend with temperatures moderating again early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups will develop Monday afternoon and evening in portions of central NV, with a 10-15% probability of isolated showers and thunderstorms in southeast White Pine County. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue today along with well above normal temperatures. There is a small (5-10%) chance of dry thunderstorms in southern portions of zone 425 this afternoon. More active weather begins on Tuesday as moist and unstable air expands up from southern NV and Arizona and into much of central and portions of northern NV. At this time the leading edge of the moisture surge will likely bring a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms to the region, with storms transitioning to wet by the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. The greatest instability and highest chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday will be generally along and south of the Highway 50 corridor. Wednesday the trough over the Pacific NW will advance a little closer to NW Nevada, which will lead to gusty winds and low RHs over all of zone 437 and portions of zones 438 and 424. At this time however fuels are not considered cured in any of these three zones. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the rest of central and northeastern NV Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal, with rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain expected over the next few days. However, not expecting any new flooding as the snow pack is greatly diminished. The water level on Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated from spring snow melt, but is expected to drop below action stage later today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 96/92/90/96