Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
404 FXUS65 KLKN 151044 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Active period of weather thru at least mid week as back to back dynamic weather systems move into Nevada, the first today and the second on Wednesday. Accumulating rainfall and strong winds are expected. Cool temperatures are also expected with dry conditions by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night Long wave trof positioned along the coast this morning will progress inland while concurrently deepening into a cutoff low. Attendant cold front will move into Nevada from the northwest this afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms present this afternoon. Thunderstorms bring the usual hazards of erratic and gusty outflow winds with the potential to gust 45+ mph, cloud to ground lightning, and small hail. South-southwesterly prefrontal winds gust 25 to 35 mph this afternoon with the strongest gusts located across central Nevada. Rainfall totals thru tonight will be modest, with around 0.10" or less expected for the valleys. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. By Monday morning, the upper trof and cutoff low will be positioned over California, situated directly over Nevada in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms increase in coverage with the majority of rainfall occurring Monday and Monday night. Additional totals will be around an inch or more for portions of northern Elko and Humboldt Counties, trending to around 0.10" or less for the southern half of White Pine County and northeast Nye County as the front stalls Monday night on a line from northeast Elko County to northwest Nye County. Winds will again be breezy, and given the position of the front, paired with jet energy thru the base of the trof, strong southerly winds will be present in and near White Pine and northeast Nye Counties with gusts 40 to 50 mph expected. Subsequently necessitating a wind advisory for Monday afternoon. Winds ease Monday night but remain breezy. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 60s with overnight lows in the low 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday A strong area of low pressure centered over northern CA will move through the western U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Breezy conditions are forecast for parts of northern and central NV from Monday morning until Tuesday morning. Higher wind speeds are expected for the southern part of the state starting Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday morning due to a jet streak developing on the southern edge of the low pressure system. Widespread showers are forecast for the entire CWA for both days. Wind speeds will decrease over NV on Tuesday morning as the low transitions further west. Breezy conditions will return for much of our CWA on Tuesday afternoon as the low moves away from the region, and a low chance of isolated showers will remain for Tuesday and Wednesday. Afterwards, another trough will move through northern CA on Wednesday and into our CWA on Thursday, resulting in widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, as well as windy conditions, for both days. Winds will die down over northern and central NV on Thursday, while windy conditions will remain in the southern area of the state through Friday. Calm and dry conditions forecast for the weekend. A deep trough of low pressure centered over northern CA will move into the western U.S. Monday. A tightening surface pressure gradient ahead the trough will bring breezy to windy conditions across portions of central and north- central Nevada. South to southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chance) will develop over the entire CWA. Most of the rainfall is expected across central and north- central Nevada, with storm total amounts through Tuesday afternoon ranging from half of an inch to an inch of rain. After a brief break in drier weather Tuesday, another trough of low pressure will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday. Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain in central NV. By early to mid next week, highs will cool into upper 50s to lower 60s with lows in the mid 30s. As the trough exits the region, a zonal flow pattern and dry weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday. Stout winds will develop ahead of a upper level trough that will be approaching Nevada Sunday afternoon. For central Nevada, south to southwest winds of 15KT to 25K with gusts up to 40KT will be possible Sunday through Sunday evening for KTPH and KELY. Northern Nevada terminals will see more SW to W winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT will be possible. These winds could generate isolated areas of blowing dust but probabilities of dust remain below 20%. Isolated showers and thundershowers will be possible, after mid day mainly for KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Probabilities start at 10% rising to 30% by Sunday evening. Central Nevada including terminals KTPH and KELY may see a low 15% chance at VCTS Sunday evening as well. Shower and storm chances will increase to 50% to 80% Sunday night into Monday, for all terminals as the upper trough moves in central Nevada. && .FIRE WEATHER...Period of active weather begins this afternoon as a dynamic cold front moves in from the northwest. Rain along with embedded isolated thunderstorms are expected thru Tuesday as the system progresses east. Brief lull in activity Tuesday night as the next weather producer moves in Wednesday. Wetting rains are expected with most of the rain falling Monday and Monday night. Greatest totals will be across northern Nevada zones with an inch or more forecast for portions of zone 437, and the northern halves of zones 438 and 469. Breezes and gusty winds produce elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph, though minimum afternoon RH values reside near or above the critical threshold of 15% as moisture moves in as noted. Winds will be breezy and strong Monday, particularly in and near zones 426 and 425, where gusts 40 to 50 mph will be present. Though minimum afternoon RH values again reside above critical thresholds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday Northeastern Nye County...White Pine County. && $$ 92/96/98/92