Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
318 FXUS65 KLKN 110901 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 201 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 * Warming trend underway through at least Wednesday * Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Low chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity Sunday through next Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) Issued at 129 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure currently centered across southern CA and AZ will gradually strengthen and expand northward through the weekend. Dry conditions persist across the CWA through Sunday, with temperatures trending warmer through Monday. Mostly sunny across the region today with winds generally in the 5 to 15 mph range this afternoon. Mid-level moisture begins to increase across Central NV Saturday afternoon resulting late afternoon and early evening cloud development, though conditions remain dry. Sunday afternoon weak instability in combination with limited mid-level moisture is expected to produce afternoon cumulus cloud build-ups across portions of Northern NV, with around a 5 percent chance of dry thunderstorms north of the Highway 50 corridor. Similar conditions are expected on Monday. Tuesday afternoon shortwave energy passes through the Pacific NW which may provide just enough extra moisture and instability across Northern NV for a few lightning strikes. For now limited TS activity to NE Elko County Tuesday afternoon where there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms, however much of the rest of Northern NV will have a 5-10 percent chance of storms. Re-inforcing trough energy digs south along the Pacific NW coast Wednesday into Thursday which will keep weak instability and a 5-10 percent chance of thunderstorms across portions of Northern NV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a warming trend though the weekend, with continued above normal temperatures early next week. Low confidence in any thunderstorm development Sunday or Monday. Increased chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday, though confidence on the location or level of any thunderstorm activity remains low. The only deviation from the NBM was to add isolated dry thunderstorms to the Northeastern corner of Elko County, which matches up with thunderstorms in NW Utah. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions the next 24 hours under mostly sunny and clear skies. General north-northwesterly winds today around 10KT or less at all terminals. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon relative humidity values for northern NV fire zones will only fall to near 20% Friday while zones 424/425/426/427 see RH values at or below 12%. The entirety of northern and central NV will dry out significantly over the weekend, however, as high pressure keeps available moisture shunted north of the state. The same high pressure will keep winds over all zones light into early next week. Sunday afternoon instability and moisture associated with a strengthening shortwave over southern ID will infiltrate far enough south over northeastern NV resulting in a 5 to 10 percent chance of isolated dry thunderstorms for zones 438/469/470 through early evening. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...99