Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
294 FXUS65 KLKN 190850 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 150 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Clear skies and cool temperatures this morning, with increasing clouds this afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer, with a repeat of increasing clouds each afternoon through Friday. Sunny this weekend with well above normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Satellite imagery shows most of the clouds from late yesterday evening have diminished, with just a few high clouds over and near Great Basin National Park in SE White Pine county. Temperatures are a little warmer tonight, though some valley locations are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s around sunrise this morning. Clouds will build in over much of central NV and portions of northeastern NV this afternoon and evening, though dry conditions continue. Winds this afternoon will be relatively light, with gusts of 10-15mph over northern NV and up to 20mph across central NV. Dry on Thursday with temperatures continuing to trend warmer. .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. Modest trof axis over the Great Basin weakens as high pressure over the southeastern U.S. begins to retrograde and move west into the 4-corners region. This keeps dry, generally southwest flow aloft, and will essentially prevent any significant moisture intrusion from the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico entering into Nevada. The high pressure over the 4-corners region is expected to gradually strengthen. This will support a continued warming trend into the weekend with temperatures warmer than normal. Daytime highs look to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Daytime highs remain mostly in the upper 80s to upper 90s early next week. Conditions will be quite dry near the surface with minimum RH values less than 15% each afternoon. Relatively light winds are also expected thru early next week aside from the typical afternoon breeze. That said, there is some uncertainty and there will be potential for slightly stronger west winds early next week in conjunction with a deepening upper low offshore of the PacNW. Weather conditions look to remain dry. && .AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions at all terminals today, though there will be increasing clouds during the afternoon hours. Winds today will generally be in the 5-12kt range, with afternoon gusts to 15kts over northern NV and up to 20kts across central NV. && .FIRE WEATHER...Cool and dry with mostly sunny skies early this morning. The pattern today through Friday will be increasing clouds each afternoon, diminishing clouds overnight, with temperatures trending warmer. At this time dry conditions are expected each of these days, though there is a 5-10% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon over mainly portions of zones 469, 470 and eastern portions of 425. For now however thunderstorms are not in the forecast on Friday (or any day through the middle of next week). Well above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week, with 90s to possibly low 100s in valley locations. Fuels will continue to cure as warm (to very warm) and dry conditions persist this weekend and into next week. && .HYDROLOGY...The recent stretch of cool temperatures has slowed the rate of high elevation snowmelt, which has in turn reduced the flow on creeks and rivers coming off snow covered higher terrain. Temperatures will now be trending warmer the rest of the week, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus will continue with elevated flows for the next several days but minor flood stage is not expected to be reached. Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday Northern Elko County... Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County... Southwest Elko County...White Pine County. && $$ 96/92/98/96