Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
106 FXUS65 KLKN 130946 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 246 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 * Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s * Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Sunday through 9 PM Tuesday * Increasing chances of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, mainly across Northern Nevada && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 118 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to build over the Western US today with temperatures trending warmer across Nevada. Weak instability in combination with increasing mid-level moisture will result in afternoon cumulus cloud build-ups across portions of Northern and Central Nevada today. Not expecting any rain or thunderstorms though there is around a 5% chance of dry thunderstorms for both Humboldt and Southern White Pine Counties. Mid-level moisture increases Monday mainly near and north of the I-80 corridor where there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours. Tuesday afternoon thunderstorm chances are focused mainly across Elko County, with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms across Eureka and White Pine Counties. Latest model ensembles now also suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over eastern Elko County. At this time there are no thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday or Friday, however the ridge remains over the region with increasing amounts of mid-level moisture which will increase the chances for thunderstorm activity. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in above normal temperatures this week, with the warmest temperatures expected today through Tuesday. The NBM is starting to catch up with deterministic models with respect to chances of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms Monday through at least Wednesday, however still had override the NBM solution for POP and Weather grids. NBM is also likely under forecasting cloud cover this week in areas where afternoon convection is favored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through Monday. Light N winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible today. Afternoon convective buildups, a few with virga, are expected with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL150 across northern and central NV during the afternoons. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures are the main forecast feature for the rest of the weekend under building high pressure. Afternoon RH values have returned to fire weather criteria levels this weekend though a weak shortwave skirting the northern border Monday and Tuesday will increase RH and dewpoints across the northern extent of zones 437/435/469/470 in the early week. Along with that moisture availability comes isolated thunderstorm activity. Monday afternoon dry thunderstorms will remain confined to the northern NV border over zones 437/438/469/470. Tuesday afternoon the thunderstorm focus shifts to zones 425/438/469/470 in northeastern and east-central NV and to a lesser extent zones 424/427 south of I-80 and north of US-50. Wednesday afternoon thunderstorm coverage is more limited to the northeastern corner of the state over zones 469/470. Strong winds lack the dynamics needed under high pressure this week though winds will be gusty and erratic in and around thunderstorm activity each afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...98