873
FXUS65 KLKN 061021
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
321 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures across the area are expected for the
next few days. In addition, showers and thunderstorms are expected
across much of northwestern and northern Nevada today, moving into
central and east-central Nevada Friday. Gusty outflow winds, small
hail and cloud to ground lighting will be the primary threats.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will wane and move eastward over
the weekend with dry summer-like conditions settling back into the
region next week. Temperatures will only slowly decline next week
but remain in the lower 90s for most valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

An active weather day is in store for much of northwestern Nevada
today. Heat will be the first concern as temperatures climb well
into the 90s into the early afternoon hours. Across northwestern
and northern Nevada, the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for
the development of showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values from
500 J/Kg to locally 1500 J/Kg, increasing mid-level moisture with
precipitable water values of 0.75" to 0.90" and some cloud layer
vertical wind shear will promote thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and even into the evening hours as model guidance
continues to show lingering instability across the northern
Nevada. The subsequent outflow boundaries and rain will
temporarily provide some heat relief but the trade off will be
40-50 mph wind gusts which may produce localized areas of blowing
dust. High temperatures before convective activity this afternoon
will rise well into the 90s in valleys across the area with lows
only in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Axis of moisture and instability moves into central and
northeastern Nevada Friday with additional afternoon showers and
thunderstorms expected. Probabilities of wetting rains in general increase
Friday with deeper surface moisture as dewpoints rise into the
upper 40s across central and northeastern Nevada. Up to a 30%
chance of reaching or exceeding 0.10" of rain is shown in guidance
in some higher elevations. Temperatures Friday will still be
quite warm but a couple of degrees cooler overall with lows Friday
night in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Saturday, some instability under the ridge will produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern Nevada.
Highs are forecasted in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 50s to
low 60s.

Sunday, isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be
possible during the afternoon across areas north of the US-50
corridor, with any chance of thunderstorms over NE Elko county,
with a 20-45% chance. Breezy afternoon conditions may also exist
with southerly winds 10-15 mph across Nye and White Pine and
westerly winds elsewhere. Highs will be cooler in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with lows in the 50s.

Monday, residual moisture and instability from a departing piece
of energy north of the state, may produce isolated thundershowers
across northern and eastern Elko county. Highs will again be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the 50s.

Tuesday through next Thursday, ensemble guidance is fairly
consistent in showing Nevada under a ridge, leading to quieter
weather and prolonged temperatures in the 90s during the day.
Models are still trying to decide strength and intensity of a
closed low near the Baja peninsula. Time will tell how this
effects nearby weather.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals today.
Thunderstorms will develop in the late morning or early afternoon
over northern NV, where there is a 20% chance of TS at KWMC and
KBAM and a 30% chance at KEKO. Storms across northern NV will
have more moisture associated with them, with a tenth of an inch
of rain possible, but only in isolated areas. Any storms that
develop across central NV will be drier, with likely only a trace
up to a few hundredths of an inch of associated rainfall. Outflow
winds from any storms will have the potential for wind gusts of
45kts or more, with patchy blowing dust possible. Thunderstorms
could linger to 06Z across northeastern Nevada which could impact
KEKO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Well  above normal temperatures are expected to
increase the snow melt on the remaining snowpack on mountain
tops. Showers and thunderstorms today and Friday could produce
wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid
increases in flows in some of the flashy creeks and streams.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage
and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for
the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. An overall increasing trend is observed with the creek
reaching minor flood stage by tonight as temperatures remain well
above normal.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/91/96/93