173
FXUS65 KLKN 051932
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1232 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep things dry tonight, though it
will shift eastward. This will allow for mid-level moisture to
move across the area Thursday bringing isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will
continue to be warm with some records set. Storms are also
expected Friday with shower coverage confined to northeastern
Nevada over the weekend. Drier conditions along with slightly
cooler temperatures are expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. The area is under
sunny skies as high pressure builds over the forecast area. The
system will continue to affect the area tonight with mostly clear
skies and lows in the 50s.

For tomorrow and tomorrow night, the high pressure system will
shift eastward, which will allow for a southwest flow aloft. This
will bring in mid-level moisture over the area and with
instability, isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop mainly across northern Nevada. Some of
the storms around the I-80 corridor will be dry as the LCL will be
around 520mb or so, though the lowers layer will moisten during
the afternoon. Further north along the Idaho border, storms will
be a bit wetter and are expected to transition to wet quickly.
High temperatures will be in the 90s with some records possible.
Winds will be breezy though convective outflows to 40 mph are
possible. Some storms may contain small hail as well. Convection
will continue during the overnight with activity across northeast
Nevada. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Friday, active weather pattern is expected to continue for
isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern and central
Nevada with higher chances for storms between 25-50% for
northeastern Nevada, 20% or lower everywhere else. Temperatures
expected to be above normal with highs in the upper 80s to just
barely reaching 100 degrees. Lows also warm in the 50s to 60s.
Light winds expected with some southerly breezes in the afternoon
in N. Nye and White Pine Counties.

Saturday, an upper level ridge moves back in over the southwestern
U.S. keeping the warmer temperatures and more drier weather,
however there is on and off again chances for isolated/dry
thunderstorms for northeastern Nevada at 20-35%. Temperatures are
expected to continue to be above normal with highs in the upper
80s to 90s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Southwesterly breezes in
the afternoon at 5-10 mph for central and northwestern Nevada,
otherwise calm winds.

Sunday, ensemble models are showing a cut-off low forming towards
the southern coast of California, however there is low confidence
on the strength and position of the system, as an upper level
ridge strengthens just north in the northwestern U.S.. Chances for
isolated/dry thunderstorms continue for northeastern Nevada with
chances between 20-45% and dissipate late afternoon. Temperature
trends are showing a slight cooling, however are expected to stay
above normal in the 80s to 90s with lows into the 50s. Breezy
winds are expected in the afternoon with southerly winds in N. Nye
and White Pine Counties at 10-15 mph, with the rest of central
Nevada and northern Nevada having westerly winds at 10-15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday, warm dry weather is expected as chances
for weather drop below 10% over Monday. High temperatures are
expected to remain above normal with highs Monday in the 80s to
90s, with a warming trend over the next few days, leaving
Wednesday highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Afternoon breezes
expected each day at 10-15 mph from a northwesterly direction on
Monday and Tuesday, shifting towards a westerly/southwesterly
direction on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected this afternoon and through
evening hours with light winds. Showers and thunderstorms expected
across the northern terminals Thursday afternoon with gusty winds
possible across the I-80 corridor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows expected to continue in some areas of
creeks and rivers from the seasonal snowmelt as above normal
temperatures are expected to increase the rate of snow melt on the
remaining snowpack on mountain tops. Chances for isolated/dry
thunderstorms in the afternoon on Thursday which could produce
wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage
and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for
the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. Overall trend continues to see an increase with the
creek reaching minor flood stage by tonight or Thursday as
temperatures continue to rise above normal.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/97/97