Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
425 FXUS65 KLKN 170901 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 201 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fall like conditions continue as a period of active weather, including rain and isolated thunderstorms, alone with cooler than average temperatures continues thru the week. Fairer weather this weekend with temperatures returning to near average. && SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night Radar and satellite imagery as of 1230 this morning depict the deep upper level closed low positioned directly over Nevada. Low will continue to gradually progress to the east thru today with latest numerical solutions positioning it over the northern Rockies by tonight. In terms of sensible weather, light to moderate rain showers will be present across the forecast area today with the majority of the activity situated over northern Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms are also forecast with the best instability located in northeast Elko County. However, with that said, instability still appears quite modest with best lifted indices only at 0 to -1. Gusty and erratic outflow winds of 45+ mph, pea sized hail or graupel, and cloud to ground lightning can be expected under any thunderstorms. Additional valley accumulations will range from around 0.25 along the Oregon and Idaho borders to no precipitation at all across portions of northern Nye and southern White Pine Counties. Brief lull in activity tonight though at least isolated showers will remain in the area as the afore mentioned deep upper low exits east, while the next upper closed low to impact Nevada moves south-southeast along the west coast. Afternoon breezes will be present with gusts around 25 mph. Look for temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average today with daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. By Wednesday, upper closed low and attendant frontal boundary moving south-southeast along the coast reside over central California with south-southwesterly flow over Nevada. This brings another round of rain and isolated thunderstorms into the forecast area from the west Wednesday morning. Rain begins across central Nevada early Wednesday morning with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the northeast. Greatest rainfall accumulations expected in and near Lander County where valley accumulations will be around 0.15. Locales elsewhere may see no rainfall at all. Activity again lulls Wednesday night. Light to breezy winds during the day with gusts around 15 mph. Slightly warmer Wednesday yet temperatures remain several degrees cooler than average. Daytime highs will be in the 60s though overnight lows will again be in the low 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Low pressure centered over west-central CA early Thursday will track SE through the day, centering over southern CA and southern NV by Thursday evening. Most of northern and central NV will be cloudy on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs on Thursday will range from upper 60s to low 70s. The upper level low continues to track to the southeast into Friday leaving dry conditions across the CWA along with high temperatures gradually trending higher through the weekend. CWA remains dry Monday and Tuesday with a northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures through the long term period will range from low 30s to low 40s. Check the clickable map on our web page for the forecast low temperature in your area to see if you will need to cover your garden. && .AVIATION...A low pressure system continues to move across Nevada with another round of rain affecting all TAF sites except for KTPH. KTPH and KELY expected to have gusty westerly winds up to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. VFR conditions dominant with CIG/VIS reduction to MVFR at times from passing rain showers. Weather conditions expected to diminish in the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...The low pressure system responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity to begin the week continues to pump plenty of moisture into the state even as it slowly spins away to the northeast over southern Idaho. The persistent tight pressure gradient of the system will create gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening ranging from 20 to 30 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue for all zones through Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher coverage percentages of showers and thunderstorms for the northern Nevada zones. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/96/97/99