425
FXUS65 KLKN 170901
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fall like conditions continue as a period of active
weather, including rain and isolated thunderstorms, alone with
cooler than average temperatures continues thru the week. Fairer
weather this weekend with temperatures returning to near average.

&&

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

Radar and satellite imagery as of 1230 this morning depict the
deep upper level closed low positioned directly over Nevada. Low
will continue to gradually progress to the east thru today with
latest numerical solutions positioning it over the northern
Rockies by tonight. In terms of sensible weather, light to
moderate rain showers will be present across the forecast area
today with the majority of the activity situated over northern
Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms are also forecast with the best
instability located in northeast Elko County. However, with that
said, instability still appears quite modest with best lifted
indices only at 0 to -1. Gusty and erratic outflow winds of 45+
mph, pea sized hail or graupel, and cloud to ground lightning can
be expected under any thunderstorms. Additional valley
accumulations will range from around 0.25 along the Oregon and
Idaho borders to no precipitation at all across portions of
northern Nye and southern White Pine Counties. Brief lull in
activity tonight though at least isolated showers will remain in
the area as the afore mentioned deep upper low exits east, while
the next upper closed low to impact Nevada moves south-southeast
along the west coast. Afternoon breezes will be present with gusts
around 25 mph. Look for temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than average today with daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Overnight lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

By Wednesday, upper closed low and attendant frontal boundary
moving south-southeast along the coast reside over central
California with south-southwesterly flow over Nevada. This brings
another round of rain and isolated thunderstorms into the forecast
area from the west Wednesday morning. Rain begins across central
Nevada early Wednesday morning with showers and thunderstorms
spreading to the northeast. Greatest rainfall accumulations
expected in and near Lander County where valley accumulations will
be around 0.15. Locales elsewhere may see no rainfall at all.
Activity again lulls Wednesday night. Light to breezy winds during
the day with gusts around 15 mph. Slightly warmer Wednesday yet
temperatures remain several degrees cooler than average. Daytime
highs will be in the 60s though overnight lows will again be in
the low 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

Low pressure centered over west-central CA early Thursday will
track SE through the day, centering over southern CA and southern
NV by Thursday evening. Most of northern and central NV will be
cloudy on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Highs on Thursday will range from upper 60s to low
70s. The upper level low continues to track to the southeast into
Friday leaving dry conditions across the CWA along with high
temperatures gradually trending higher through the weekend. CWA
remains dry Monday and Tuesday with a northwesterly flow aloft.
Low temperatures through the long term period will range from low
30s to low 40s. Check the clickable map on our web page for the
forecast low temperature in your area to see if you will need to
cover your garden.

&&

.AVIATION...A low pressure system continues to move across Nevada
with another round of rain affecting all TAF sites except for
KTPH. KTPH and KELY expected to have gusty westerly winds up to
20-25 kts in the afternoon. VFR conditions dominant with CIG/VIS
reduction to MVFR at times from passing rain showers. Weather
conditions expected to diminish in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The low pressure system responsible for shower and
thunderstorm activity to begin the week continues to pump plenty
of moisture into the state even as it slowly spins away to the
northeast over southern Idaho. The persistent tight pressure
gradient of the system will create gusty winds Tuesday afternoon
and evening ranging from 20 to 30 mph. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue for all zones through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with higher coverage percentages of showers and
thunderstorms for the northern Nevada zones.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/96/97/99