Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
183 FXUS65 KLKN 212120 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 220 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry with warmer than average temperatures thru early next week with the typical afternoon breezes also present. Slight increase in probability of precipitation for eastern Nevada Wednesday though accumulating rain is not expected. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Any virga or dry thunderstorms present across the forecast area this evening will dissipate moving into the overnight with dry and fair weather present tonight. Overnight low temperatures look to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Trof weakens Saturday with energy continuing east out of the region as high pressure concurrently increases over the four corners region. This will leave weak zonal flow across the forecast area Saturday morning with flow turning southwesterly by Saturday night. Weather will be dry with noticeably warmer temperatures and many locations will warm an additional 4-8 degrees compared to Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with a few readings near 100 in some of the lower elevation valleys such as Winnemucca and Battle Mountain. The typical afternoon breezes will also be present with gusts generally around 20 mph. Fair weather and light winds are expected Saturday night with overnight low temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Troughing well to the north in British Columbia, as well as a subtropical high over the four corners region will keep Nevada under dry conditions and southerly flow, with above normal condtions in the mid 90s though next week. Lows at night will range in the upper 50s except for the West Wendover areas in Southeastern Elko county, where lows will only get into the low to mid 70s Sunday through Thursday. This will created an elevated week of heat risk to those sensitive to hot weather. Wednesday, increased PoPs across eastern Nevada and along the Utah boarder indicates an increased likelihood of cumulus build- ups during the afternoon. These may result in gusty or erratic winds. The Probability of precip remains less than 10% so weather has not been added to the grids. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through this afternoon. Winds will be light of the W to SW at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT across northern and central Nevada. There is a low 10% chance of an isolated dry thunderstorm or two that will exist with gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes being the main hazards. Probabilities remain to low at this time to mention VCTS in the TAFs, but it could be included in later TAF updates should confidence warrant. VFR condtions continue Saturday with west to southwest flow over the region. Winds could become gusty in the afternoon with gusts as highs as 20KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...Any virga or dry thunderstorms present across the forecast area this evening will dissipate moving into the overnight. For tomorrow and thru early next week, temperatures will be hot and weather dry with temps residing much warmer than average. The typical afternoon breezes will also be present with gusts generally residing in the 20 to 25 mph range. Afternoon RH values will be less than 15% and elevated fire weather risk will be of concern with all things considered. && HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus dropped below action stage today and is expected to remain below action stage in the coming days. Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring snowmelt. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/91/91/92/91