Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
442 FXUS65 KLKN 231033 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 333 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures through Monday. Southwesterly winds will become breezy across much of northern and portions of central NV this afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees above normal. There is a Heat Advisory in effect today (through Wednesday evening) for eastern Elko county which includes Wendover. Highs today will be well above normal across the region, however in eastern Elko county the overnight lows will not drop below 70 degrees which will limit relief from the hot afternoon conditions. Winds this afternoon will be breezy over much of the region, with strongest winds of 10-20mph gusting to 35 mph over portions of Humboldt and northern Elko counties. The remainder of Elko county and all of central NV will have lighter SW wind of generally 10-15 mph gusting 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and early evening. Not too much change in temperatures on Monday. There will however be some increased clouds over central NV Monday afternoon. For now not expecting any storms to develop on Monday, however the latest couple model runs do show slight increases to moisture and instability creeping up into east-central NV. For now thunderstorms on Monday look to be a little south and east of White Pine county. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday The Silver State continues to remain between two major upper level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will help drive the occasional front into northern Nevada during the week but not really affecting temperatures. The second feature is a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The surface component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow that will continue to drift north over the four corners. This moisture will very slow work westward during the week, helping enhance the mid level moisture across Nevada. For Tuesday this flow will first help develop some convective buildups and perhaps occasional virga with an occasional lightning strike. By Wednesday two key changes help focus the mid level moisture the upper ridge will shift west help guide the moist flow into NV, and second, moisture will be concentrated by a weak shortwave trough transiting the southwesterly flow. This shortwave will push a boundary into central NV allowing for a low chance for a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms across eastern NV Wednesday evening. Models have become a bit more bullish on precipitation, favoring more wet storm modes. But have also been quicker with the frontal passage which now may keep Thursday on the dry side. By Friday the trough and the ridge move east with the trough and front pushing the mid level moisture out of the area again, leaving quiet conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will begin the week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across northern Nevada with the passage of a front Friday into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Highs across the north will recover quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as the upper ridge shifts slightly westward. Overnight lows will also start above normal in the low 50s to 60s, a brief cool down into the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday across the north before returning to the low 50s to low 60s for the weekend. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west to WSW for the week at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH. Winds will pick up across the north Thursday and Friday as the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly breezes this afternoon will be the main concern with gusts 20KTS to 25KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue across the region today with afternoon highs generally in the 90s. Across central NV zones, SW winds of 7-17mph with gusts to 25mph are expected this afternoon. Northern NV zones will have stronger SW winds of 10-20mph gusting 20-30mph today. Higher terrain in zones 437 and 438 may see wind gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon and early evening. Well above normal temperatures continue on Monday, with weak instability pushing up into portions of east-central NV. At this time only expecting afternoon cumulus build-ups over zone 425 Monday afternoon. However, latest model runs have been trending moisture and instability slightly higher over east-central NV for Monday afternoon. Should this trend continue there may be enough instability for a few lightning strikes over or near Great Basin National Park. At this time however no thunderstorms are forecast in any zones today or on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are looking increasingly possible on Tuesday, and likely on Wednesday for many zones. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal today and into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected over the next few days, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring snowmelt. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 96/98/92/96