422
FXUS65 KLKN 272035
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
135 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry condtions are expected for most, with the
exception of White Pine county as isolated showers and
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon. These storms could
produce gusty or erratic wind gusts. Dry condtions return tomorrow
and Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday night.

Current satellite shows a Cumulus field developing across
northeastern Nye, Southern Lander, and most of Eureka county. It
is in this are that isolated showers and thunderstorms have the
greatest chance of developing this afternoon. Surface level CAPE,
mid-level moisture, and favorable lift support thunderstorms this
afternoon, with DCAPE values around 1300 J/kg, strong and erratic
outflow gusts will be possible with convective updrafts. Model
soundings at Ely show a small cap at around 400 mb, that may
inhibit any deep layer convection. Elsewhere, dry condtions can be
expected with highs in the 80s. Areas across the I-80 corridor
will see breezy winds with gusts of 25-30 mph at times. Its this
combined with relative humidity percentages of 10-15% that will
lead to elevated fire weather condtions this afternoon. Lows this
evening should be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday, quiet weather is expected under zonal flow. This will help
keep afternoon breezes down. Highs are expected to be in the upper
80s, with low 90s in central Nevada. Nighttime lows are
forecasted to drop into the 50s.



.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday

Quieter conditions look to return for the weekend as both the
upper trough and upper ridge shift back east leaving the Silver
State under near zonal flow aloft and slowly rising heights as
Summer returns to NE Nevada. However, a northern stream upper
trough makes land fall over BC Canada Sunday. This trough as it
slides east will try to push a front into N NV late Sunday evening
into Monday morning. models currently show the front stalling
just south of the I-80 corridor before lifting back north Monday
night, which has been in line with prior runs. Models have shifted
though toward a drier solution, limiting POPs to just the
NV/ID/OR border region. This will give only far northern Nevada a
10% to 15% chance at thunderstorms. As it stands models favor a
higher probability of dry than wet storms as current model trends
still favor this solution. Will need to watch winds and RH for
possible fire weather conditions, although system timing during
the late evening into the over night Sunday may help mitigate some
concerns. After Tuesday, upper flow trends more zonal as the
upper trough departs eastward, allowing for another quiet spell
with slowly rising heights through the July 4th Holiday.
Temperatures will be quick to recover Friday and Saturday as highs
reach back into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Depending on haw far
south the front will make it Sunday night, highs Monday and
Tuesday will be upper 70s to upper 80s across northern Nevada,
while central NV remains in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Wednesday and
Thursday highs return to the mid 80s to mid 90s area wide. Winds
for the extended will be generally out of the west to WSW at 5 MPH
to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH through Sunday.
Winds will pick up across the north Sunday evening and Monday as
the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH
with gusts up to 35 MPH possible, with lighter winds returning
again for the rest of the week.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Friday, as drier air filters in behind yesterdays frontal
passage. Isolated Thunderstorms will be possible this evening for
KELY as a surface boundary slowly works SE through the area,
other terminals look to remain dry this evening. Primary hazards
will be strong gusty outflow winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall. There is a chance of a brief drop to MVFR or to IFR
conditions should a storm impact KELY directly. Out side of
storms, winds will be slightly elevated this evening out of the W
to WNW overnight at 15KT to 25KT with a few gusts up to 35KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon across zone 425 and perhaps eastern portions of
426. Chances remain low (< 15% chance) of storms in 426, so no
weather was added to the grids. Elevated fire weather conditions
are also expected this afternoon across the I-80 corridor
effecting zones 424, 438, 469, 470 and northern portions of 427 as
RH percentages range from 10-15% combined with afternoon winds
that could gust between 25-30 mph. After today, weather quiets
down with light winds and dry condtions Friday and Saturday.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/98/98/91