Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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364 FXUS63 KLMK 151729 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 129 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and warm conditions expected across the region today. * Chances for rain (<30%) possible around midweek for areas along and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1206 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skycover. The primary band of clouds is located well south of us, though some mid-level clouds have been lingering over parts of Ohio/Butler/Grayson/Hancock/Breckinridge. We`ll keep a dry forecast going through this afternoon as the belt of moisture transport remains far enough south. Temps should peak in the upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots close to 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Early morning satellite imagery reveals clear to partly cloudy skies across the region. Much of the cloudiness is over far western KY along the eastern periphery of the remnant circulation of Francine which continues to spin down. Temperatures have a little bit of a ridge-valley split this morning with the cooler valleys/radiational cooling spots down in the lower 60s with the ridges remaining in the upper 60s. For the remainder of the overnight hours, no significant weather is expected and temps will bottom out in the upper 50s to around 60 in the valleys with the ridges remaining in the mid 60s. For today, a continued Rex block pattern will remain in place across the region. The upper ridge to our north/northeast will build southward and push the remnants of Francine more to the west and southwest which will result in a drier day across the region. Highs today will warm into the mid-upper 80s with a few spots hitting 90. For tonight, with building high pressure into the region, mostly clear skies are expected with lows dropping back into the upper 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The long term forecast continues to feature unusual upper-level blocking patterns for our region through most of next week. The Rex Block that has been in place for most of the weekend shifts slightly eastward for the start of the week. This will feature an upper ridge centered over the Great Lakes and New England as the upper low that was once associated with Francine over the southern US. With the ridging aloft and sfc high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and the northeast building back into the Ohio Valley, we look to start the week warm and dry. The forecast and overall pattern turns more complicated with the development of a second warm core tropical system off the SC coast. Deterministic models continue to struggle with the spatial and temporal aspects with this warm core system but also the overall strength. GFS seems to be quicker but also weaker bringing this system into eastern KY and WV Monday night into Tuesday while the EURO has this system not working into the Ohio Valley until late Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing and location will determine if locations within our CWA, mainly along and east of the I-75 corridor, see any rain out of this system. Overall confidence remains low given the large discrepancies in the handling of this next potential tropical system. By the end of the week, a second weaker Rex Block pattern looks to setup across the eastern third of the US with the upper-low over NC/VA and weaker upper ridging over southern Ontario. This will shift eastward as ridging from Texas will help to strengthen the Rex Block by the weekend. Outside of the low end rain chances Tuesday into Thursday (10 to 20 percent) across the far eastern CWA, the overall forecast looks dry. Temperatures also look to remain warm compared to mid September normals with highs in the mid to even upper 80s through the week and lows upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure to our north will continue to provide mostly clear conditions and VFR flight categories for the forecast period. Winds will generally be light and from the east. BWG has the best chance for any mid and high level clouds, though no impacts are expected. VFR continues tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJP SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...CJP