Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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203 FXUS63 KLMK 191037 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 637 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Patchy fog to start, but another dry and warm day expected for today. Temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. * Mainly dry and hot weather through Sunday with highs each day near or above 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Light winds and increased low level moisture is resulting in some patchy fog development this morning. Thin high level cirrus clouds have been streaming from west to east across the region this morning too, which could be slightly helping keep fog mostly limited to the valleys. Patchy fog will remain possible before sunrise this morning, but should see any fog dissipate around or shortly after sunrise. For today, expect dry conditions as upper level ridging builds overhead. Temperatures overachieved yesterday, and the warming trend continues today as increasing thicknesses result in warmer temperatures for today. Most areas will reach the upper 80s again, but some spots could reach 90F, especially in urban settings. Today will be the first of a multi-day stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. Model soundings definitely show a drier column than yesterday, so overall cloud cover should be less today. However, we may have enough moisture at the top of the boundary layer to still get some afternoon diurnal cu development, but overall cloud coverage will be limited, and most can expect a sunny day. For tonight, mostly clear conditions remain in place as high pressure sits overhead. Light winds, clear skycover, and increased low level moisture, could once again offer the potential for some patchy fog development before sunrise Friday morning. Temperatures will be similar to this morning, with most areas in the lower 60s, with the main exception being the Louisville metro. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Dry and unseasonably warm weekend in store as upper ridge centered over Texas will be our main weather player. Weak front advancing from the Upper Midwest Friday into Friday night will most likely get too far ahead of its upper support before making any sensible wx impression this far south. H8 temps will push 20C through the period, supporting daily highs in the lower 90s for most. Dewpoints mainly in the lower to mid 60s will keep heat index values very close to the actual air temperatures. However, some modest moisture pooling over southern Indiana will keep dewpoints closer to 70, and provide a bit more support for isolated diurnal convection. However, absent a source of lift, probabilities are still too low at this time to warrant mention in forecast products. Min temps solidly above climo with lows in the 60s for most, though SDF might not dip below 70 on some nights. Upper ridge flattens out early next week, opening the door for northern stream disturbances crossing the Great Lakes to push a sfc cold front into the Ohio Valley. Not confident in a clean fropa, so will lean on the side of unsettled weather with a 30-40% chance for showers and storms Mon-Wed, but not much in the way of widespread drought relief in the next week. The weekend`s heat will break by Tuesday, if not Monday, but temps will continue to run just above climo. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 636 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 SCT thin cirrus continues to drift across the area from west to east this morning. Terminals are mostly VFR, though some very patchy fog is resulting in HNB to bounce up and down in flight categories. LEX also experienced this earlier. Expect these changing conditions to continue for an hour or so, but steady VFR will return not long after sunrise. VFR today and most sunny, but should have some diurnal cu develop this afternoon. Winds will remain rather late and somewhat variable. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...CJP