Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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083 FXUS63 KLMK 180542 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 142 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Sporadic showers east of I-65 through the early overnight hours. Little to no accumulations expected. * Summer-like warmth returns for late week into the weekend with highs well above seasonal normals. Dry weather also looks likely until late in the weekend or early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Quick update to tweak hourly PoPs through Midnight to best capture ongoing radar trends in east-central KY. Just have a couple lingering areas of light rain near Frankfort/west of Lawrenceburg and also near Berea and Crab Orchard. These showers are still expected to diminish within the next hour or two. Cannot rule out a stray isolated shower overnight, though mainly dry conditions are expected. Issued at 642 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Scattered light rain and sprinkles are ongoing, mainly from the I-65 corridor eastward. A steadier band of light rain that pushed west across Edmonson, Hart, Grayson, Hardin, and Bullitt counties is now weakening as it attempts to push into drier low-level air to the west. These areas along the I-65 corridor plus areas to the northeast across north-central KY and the Bluegrass will have the best chance at off and on light rain or sprinkles through this evening. Expect this precip to gradually diminish over the next few hours though. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Area of low pressure continues to spin over the Carolinas this afternoon, sending spiral bands of sporadic rain showers toward the region. Forecast soundings show some fairly dry air below 700mb that the rain is having a hard time overcoming, with most accumulating rains mainly impacting areas along the I-75 corridor points eastward. Even then, rainfall amounts within the eastern CWA have been fairly light up to this point. The low pressure will slowly weaken and wobble around the Carolinas overnight into tomorrow and shift slightly to the east. This will result in a slow drying trend for our east, though clouds and even some low level moisture will work in to the area toward dawn. Some guidance depicts stratus and/or fog to develop across portions of the region east of I-65. Tomorrow will be another challenging temperature forecast as clouds associated with the area of low pressure continue to impact the eastern half of the region. Can`t rule out some rogue showers making it toward the I-75 corridor, but compared to today, coverage should be less overall. On a personal note, this is my last forecast shift with NWS Louisville. It has been an honor and privilege to work with the NWS Louisville team and provide forecast services and warnings to the great folks of southern Indiana and central Kentucky for over 7 years now. This region has some very unique forecast challenges that will keep just about any meteorologist humble... particularly in the winter when trying to forecast snow amounts or guessing where the winter p-type transition zones will set up :) I`ve learned a lot from my time out here, and worked a wide variety of wild weather (including the December `21 Tornado Outbreak) that I`ll never forget. Thank you NWS Louisville and the folks of this area to make me and my family feel at home all of the years we`ve been out here... makes it tough to say goodbye! && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 By Wednesday night, the upper low which has brought tropical rainfall to the Carolinas and light rainfall to parts of eastern and central Kentucky will begin to wobble back to the east toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Decreasing clouds Wednesday evening combined with light winds from a weak pressure gradient should allow for efficient cooling into Thursday morning. Patchy fog will be possible across the area Thursday morning, with a particular focus in areas which receive rain over the next 24 hours in addition to valleys and bodies of water. Thursday through much of the weekend is expected to bring quiet and unseasonably warm weather to the region. As the aforementioned upper low moves gradually into North Atlantic, upper ridging initially over the southern Plains will spread eastward across the Ohio Valley, with heights and temperatures increasing steadily from Thursday through at least Saturday. Ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of climatology across the Miss. Valley on Friday, with this area spreading across most of central KY and southern IN for Saturday and Sunday. As a result, above normal temperatures, particularly afternoon highs, are expected from Thursday through the weekend. With the upper ridge blocking moist return flow, temperatures should still be able to cool off fairly easily at night, with lows being slightly more seasonable. The lack of much moisture return will also keep precipitation chances low from Thursday through Saturday, with dry weather persisting during this time period. By Sunday into early next week, an approaching low-amplitude upper trough should start to cut into the upper ridge overhead, bringing a sfc cold front close to the area by early next week. The timing of this system is quite variable among different ensemble members, with the reintroduction of rain chances and the arrival of somewhat cooler temperatures ranging from Sunday to the middle of next week. The preponderance of ensemble guidance suggests that we should remain dry and warm into Sunday as well, though the minority of ensembles which do have precipitation result in a somewhat cooler forecast in the NBM by Sunday. As we head into early next week, a somewhat more unsettled pattern is expected as the aforementioned front lingers about the Ohio Valley. It is too soon to tell for sure what precipitation chances will be like with this system, though most ensembles suggest relatively modest precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures would also be favored to cool slightly with the additional clouds and moisture, as well as the potential that the cold front makes it through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The bulk of the light and scattered showers appear to have come to an end and outside the development of an isolated shower/sprinkle the remainder of the early morning hours should be dry. There remains some low-level moisture associated with a stalled upper low currently over the southeastern US. There were marginal MVFR CIG for BWG, could see this through the rest of the pre-dawn hours to just after daybreak. VFR flight categories likely will return for all TAF sites during the morning with light northeast winds and mainly SCT to at times BKN CIGs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...BTN