365
FXUS63 KLMK 030617
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
217 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Less humid today with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

* Mostly sunny Independence Day, with afternoon highs in the low
  90s.

* Turning hot and humid again this weekend. Rain and thunderstorm
  chances return on late Sunday through mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Clear skies over the region at this hour and light winds has allowed
for efficient cooling. Temperatures over the region are sitting in
the 70s and on track to dropping into the mid 60 to upper 60s by
sunrise.

Troughing moving east over the Great Lakes is shedding some
vorticity into the lower Ohio Valley. This will bring some mid-level
clouds into the northern half of the region this morning. By late
morning these clouds will burn off leaving skies mostly clear until
a scattered Cu field develops in the afternoon. Ridging will build
in from the west, which will help to increase temperatures a degree
or two compared to yesterday. Convective temperatures this afternoon
will be around 87/88F, and with the weak vorticity shedding in the
region, wouldn`t completely throw out a short-lived, isolated light
shower later this afternoon. Very low confidence precip forecast
with weak high pressure over the region.

Tonight, skies will clear out and winds will become light. Ridging
will continue to push over the region, which will keep low
temperatures a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Independence Day - Saturday...

Ridging aloft will continue to slowly push over the Ohio Valley at
the end of the week. This will increase heights and therefore,
temperatures each day. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures are
forecasted to be in the low to mid 90s. Dew points will still remain
mild, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Given the Holiday
weekend activities, it is a good reminder to find shade and hydrate,
especially during peak heating of the day. At the surface, high
pressure will slip off to the east allowing light winds to veer into
the weekend.

Sunday - Mid Next Week...

Ridging aloft will deamplify and push off to the east as a trough
moves into the Great Lakes region. This feature will send a cold
front south into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will exit to the
east allowing for the return of southwesterly flow and moisture. As
the cold front approaches, it will begin to stall out over the lower
Ohio Valley. This will keep shower and storm chances in the region
through mid week. Not expecting severe storms at this time, due to
the shear remaining north of the region. PWATs will be around 2.0
inches, so could see some heavy rain at times. Through Thursday,
ensembles are showing only a 30-40% of exceeding 1.25 inches of
rainfall and a 15% chance of exceeding 1.5 inches. High temperatures
will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected during most of the period, excluding
some possible light fog in the morning at HNB and BWG. A band of mid-
level clouds will move through early this morning and burn off by
late morning. Surface high pressure will keep winds on the lighter
side through the period. Tomorrow, expect scattered cumulus to
develop around 4-5k feet. After sunset, Cu field will diminish and
winds will become calm.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW