Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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785 FXUS63 KLOT 220543 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record heat expected today, fittingly for the last day of astronomical summer - Scattered showers/t-storms tonight likely to build to a steadier beneficial rain with some embedded thunderstorms Sunday - Another period of showers and possible storms Monday night into Tuesday, highest chances along and east of I-55 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Through Sunday night: Another unseasonably warm afternoon is underway with high temperatures solidly in the upper 80s and lower 90s as of 2 PM CDT. However, the upper ridge that has been supporting the summer-like warmth as of late is starting to break down as it gets shoved east by the approaching upper-low over the southwest CONUS. Ahead of the upper-low, strong warm advection has been interacting with a plume of moisture across IA and western IL which has resulted in some showers and thunderstorms taking shape near the Mississippi River. While these showers and storms have so far been able to maintain themselves, they should begin to interact with the much drier airmass over northern IL and dissipate prior to reaching the I-39 corridor. Though, there is a small (around 15%) chance that an isolated shower or storm could briefly impact portions of western Ogle and/or Lee counties this afternoon before the showers/storms dissipate. A better coverage showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into northern IL overnight as the aforementioned upper-low ejects a couple of vort maxes into the western Great Lakes and forces a cold through the area. While this setup will allow showers and storms to persist throughout the day on Sunday, there still is expected to be some occasional breaks in the rain on Sunday particularly during the late morning and early afternoon hours before the front arrives. Furthermore, the widespread rain will also limit the amount of destabilization that will occur Sunday afternoon which means that the coverage of thunderstorms should gradually wane through the day on Sunday as well. That said, rainfall totals from this system are expected to be solidly in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range areawide but there is the potential for some pockets of higher rainfall amounts in excess of an inch. Unfortunately, the convective nature of the showers/storms make it difficult to pinpoint the exact location of these higher amounts. Regardless, antecedently dry conditions should allow the ground to soak up the rainfall without issue so the risk for flooding remains very low. The aforementioned cold front will begin to push the bulk of the showers and storms south of I-80 by Sunday evening which may allow most of northern IL to dry out Sunday night. However, the presence of an upper vort overhead in combination with lingering moisture may allow at least isolated showers to persist Sunday night. Aside from the rain, winds will quickly build behind the front Sunday evening especially over the open waters of Lake Michigan with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph possible. These breezy northerly winds will also build waves on the lake and create dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous boating conditions. Though, the front will finally usher in notably cooler air in its wake which will lead to more typical mid- September temperatures for Sunday and Sunday night. Yack Monday through Saturday: Cooler, more typical late September, weather is slatted for least the first half of next week following a period of showers and storms with a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Shower and storm chances with this first initial disturbance and cold front should shift south of the area for Sunday night into Monday. This should thus result in mainly precipitation free conditions in our area for daylight hours of Monday. However, expect temperatures to only top out around 70 as cool northeasterly winds prevail. While much of the day Monday is now looking dry, there is an increasing signal for another period of showers and possible storms Monday night into Tuesday as the central Plains mid/upper trough finally ejects eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As it does, it should also foster the development and consolidation of a northeastward shifting area of low pressure across IL and IN Monday night into Tuesday. The track of this wave largely looks to favor the southeastern half of the area through Tuesday (roughly areas along and southeast of a line from Waukegan to Mendota, IL). Some low potential (<20%) also exists for a few strong storms Tuesday, primarily across IN in closer proximity to the evolving warm sector. Following the departure of this wave of low pressure late Tuesday, the weather pattern looks to become rather "blocky" across the central CONUS as a building upper ridge overspreads the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes regions. Models often struggle with the evolution of blocky patterns like this, so there is not a lot of confidence in the details. However, it looks like Rex Block type pattern with northern stream ridging and a southern stream upper low somewhere in the central Plains or lower Missouri Valley region. If this Rex Block develops as ECMWF suggests with pretty good ensemble agreement, then dry and warmer than average weather could return later in the week into next weekend. KJB && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - SHRA/embedded TSRA likely after sunrise into the afternoon - Wind shift to northerly late this afternoon/very early evening with cold front Showers and thunderstorms over southern IA and northern MO will move east and begin to impact the terminals later this morning. Guidance is aggressively in developing MVFR/IFR CIGS this morning once the rain begins. Opted to hang onto timing from previous TAFs for MVFR and IFR, however, guidance is often too quick with developing CIGs, so may need to push back timing in later updates based on observational trends. Timing for the heaviest SHRA/embedded TSRA still looks to be mid morning into the early afternoon with coverage of rain expected to decrease late in the afternoon before ending around sunset. Southwesterly winds expected much of today until a cold front results in an abrupt wind shift to northerly late in the afternoon. Period of gusty northerly winds is expected at the terminals closer to the lake this evening. After a potential period of IFR CIGS, expected CIGS to lift a bit to MVFR late in the afternoon with a tendency toward scattering out tonight. Timing of clearing may be delayed a bit by some lake stratocumulus at GYY and potentially ORD and MDW. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday evening for ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Monday night for INZ001-INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Monday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago