826
FXUS66 KLOX 161242
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
542 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...16/345 AM.

Warm to hot conditions are expected again today, although it will
be a bit cooler in most areas. More significant cooling is likely
Monday, then minor changes through Wednesday. Temperatures will
then trend upwards by the end of this week. Gusty north to
northwest winds will affect portions of the region, including
southern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 cooridor, Antelope
Valley, and the Central Coast, through at least Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/540 AM.

Strong NW-N winds continued across much of southern SBA County,
the mountains from eastern SBA County thru L.A. County, thru the
I-5 Corridor, in the foothills of the Antelope Valley and in the
Santa Clarita Valley. Temperatures were still in the mid 70s to
around 80 in some foothill locations in SBA/VTU/L.A. Counties
early this morning. An eddy circulation has developed across the
inner waters, and low clouds have pushed into southern L.A.
County. Expect clouds to overspread most of the L.A. County coast
this morning and possibly slip into the San Gabriel Valley. N of
Pt Conception, low clouds have developed in southern portions of
the Central Coast and in the Santa Ynez Valley due to upslope
flow against the N slopes of the Santa Ynez Range. Clouds should
clear in most areas by mid morning. There will probably be areas
of smoke from the Post Fire across portions of L.A. County today.

An unseasonably strong and cold upper low will move into and
across Washington state today, then into Idaho and eventually
Montana tonight and Mon. To the south of this upper low, a trough
will sharpen across CA later today and tonight, then it will move
east and flatten Mon. Strong westerly flow aloft will continue
across the region through tonight, then fast west to northwest
broadly cyclonic flow will continue through Tue. At the surface,
N-S gradients will remain strong right through early Tue.

As a result, a long duration strong NW to N wind event will
affect many parts of Southwest California thru at least Mon
night. Winds will likely be strongest this morning, and again late
this afternoon thru late tonight, with gusts to 60 to 65 mph in
the more favored locations. High Wind Warning level winds may be
somewhat less widespread tonight, but they will still likely occur
across southwestern SBA County, the interior mtns of SBA County,
the Ventura County mtns, thru the I-5 Corridor, and in the
western foothills of the Antelope Valley. While winds should drop
below High Wind Warning levels in southeastern SBA County this
morning, winds will likely remain at advisory level at times
through late tonight, and possibly again late Mon and Mon night.

Advisory level NW winds will likely continue in the Antelope
Valley thru late tonight, and will likely redevelop this
afternoon/evening on the Central Coast. There will likely be
another round of gusty NW winds in the Santa Clarita Valley
tonight after a lull later this morning, and wind advisories may
have to be extended there thru at least late tonight.

With falling heights and some cooling thru the atmosphere, max
temps today should be a few degrees lower than they were Sat in
most areas. However, they should still be somewhat above normal.
Temps will be very tricky across southern SBA County, as warm
downslope northerly winds will be battling with the cooler marine
air pushed northward by the eddy circulation in the inner waters.
It does appear that there will be significant cooling in
southeastern SBA County today, especially near the coast from the
city of Santa Barbara eastward. However, max temps may still jump
again late this afternoon/evening, and since it remained fairly
warm overnight, the chance of heat stress may be a bit higher
than the max temps might suggest. After some consideration, have
decided to leave the Heat Advisory as is for southern SBA County
especially since it includes the foothills which will likely be
very warm again today.

Low clouds and fog will likely be a bit more widespread tonight/Mon
morning across coastal sections of L.A. County, and clouds will
likely push into the San Gabriel Valley and possibly portions of
the San Fernando Valley. By late tonight, some stratus could push
into coastal sections of VTU County. Once again, expect some night
thru morning low clouds/fog in southern portions of the Central
Coast and in the Santa Ynez Valley. Expect skies to clear in most
areas by late Mon morning. Height falls and cooling at 850 mb and
950 mb should bring several degrees of cooling to most areas Mon.

There will be another spike in the NW winds late Mon into Mon
night, but expect winds to be mostly in the Wind Advisory level
range. The low level flow will try to turn more northeasterly Tue
morning as pressure gradients between KLAX and KDAG turn weakly
offshore. This should bring an end to the gusty NW winds in most
areas late Mon night, but some gusty NE winds are possible in the
mtns of L.A. County Tue morning. With the increased NE low level
flow shown by the latest models, there may be somewhat of a
reduction in night thru morning low clouds and fog across L.A.
County Mon night/Tue morning. Max temps may actually rise a bit on
Tue as heights rise slightly and both N-S and W-E gradients will
be offshore to start the day.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/525 AM.

There continues to be good agreement amongst the operational
runs of the GFS and the EC, showing another trough developing
along the West Coast Wed, sharpening in place Wed night and Thu,
then beginning to flatten out and move east Fri. Heights will
rise late Fri and Sat as an upper high in Texas and northern
Mexico expands northwestward toward the region.

This pattern should bring areas of night thru morning low clouds
and fog to most coastal and some valley areas Wed thru Fri, with a
possible decrease in low clouds coverage in the valleys by Fri or
Sat as rising heights suppress the depth of the marine layer.
N-S gradients may still be sufficient to produce gusty winds
across SBA County during the late afternoon and evening hours
Wed and Thu, but do not expect winds to be as strong as they
have been recently.

Do not expect too much change in max temps Wed and Thu, remaining
generally within a few degrees of normal, then expect at least a
few degrees of warming both Fri and Sat, especially across the
interior. Max temps may reach or exceed 100 degrees in the
Antelope Valley, and possibly the interior valleys of SLO County
by Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1033Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3400 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in TAF package. For most
sites, CAVU conditions are anticipated through the period.
However for KLAX, KLGB, KSMO and KSMX, CIG and/or VSBY
restrictions will be possible 12Z-17Z.

Gusty north winds will continue through the period. Light
turbulence and LLWS will be likely across the mountains and
foothills.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is 40% chance that
IFR conditions will not develop 12Z-17Z. For tonight, moderate
confidence in return of CIG/VSBY with a window of +/- 2 hours for
timing of return. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period. There is a 20-30% chance for smoke to produce
some MVFR VSBYs and/or BKN040-060 conditions.

&&

.MARINE...16/138 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
are expected to remain at Gale force levels through Monday. So,
GALE WARNINGS will remain in place during this time (with a 20%
chance of Storm force winds through Sunday night). Seas will peak
in the 12 to 15 foot range through Monday. For Tuesday through
Thursday, winds will subside, but remain at Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels while seas drop below 10 feet.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-80% chance of Gale
force winds through tonight and a GALE WARNING remains in effect.
Seas will peak between 10 to 13 foot through tonight. For Monday
through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds.
On Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western Santa Barbara
Channel, high confidence in Gale Force Winds continuing through
tonight with a GALE WARNING remaining in effect. The winds will
be strongest from mid channel and westward. For Monday through
Thursday, there will be a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. Elsewhere across
the southern Inner Waters, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level
winds today with high confidence in winds and seas below SCA
levels Monday through Thursday.

Across all of the coastal waters, steep and dangerous seas can be
expected through early this week.

&&

.BEACHES...16/139 AM.

Short-period wind waves, due to gale force winds over the nearby
coastal waters, will generate significant surf conditions along
the local beaches today through Monday. High surf, 4 to 7 feet,
will impact the beaches of Ventura county. For the beaches along
the Central Coast as well as Los Angeles county, elevated surf
conditions will continue through Monday. Along with the surf
conditions, dangerous rip currents can be expected into early this
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...15/843 PM.

&&

Gusty northwest to north winds are expected to continue through
Monday, peaking in intensity tonight with a secondary peak
tonight into early Monday. Wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will
be common at times through the period for the Central Coast,
mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura and northwest Los Angeles
County as well as Antelope Valley (strongest in the mountains and
deserts). Isolated gusts to 65 mph will be likely in the
strongest periods of wind across the Santa Ynez Range and I-5
corridor. Meanwhile, a warm and dry air mass will remain in place,
with widespread 8 to 15 percent humidities across the interior
today, and 12 to 20 percent on Monday. Poor overnight
recoveries in the foothills are also expected. The warm and dry
air will continue to descend into some coastal foothills on
Sunday, including portions of southern Santa Barbara County. The
combination of gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidities
will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather
conditions across southern Santa Barbara county through tonight,
and all interior areas through Monday. There is an increased
risk for fast growing grass fires over much of the area,
that could transition into wildfires where the fuel beds are
most abundant and dry.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for
      zones 87-340-346-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM PDT Monday
      for zones 349-351-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 349>352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM PDT this
      morning for zones 350-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 PM PDT Monday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 356-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 2 AM PDT Monday for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 7 PM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT/Cohen
FIRE...Gomberg/Munroe
SYNOPSIS...DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox