Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
680 FXUS66 KLOX 252021 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 121 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...25/227 AM. A gradual cooling trend will continue through midweek as high pressure weakens over the area and onshore flow strengthens. Night through morning low clouds and fog will slowly return to the coastal areas. Temperatures will likely rebound next weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...25/117 PM. The latest satellite imagery showed no significant clouds building up across the high terrain supports little to no threat of even isolated showers for those areas and virtually no chance elsewhere. Drying trends aloft should maintain dry conditions through the short term minus the small chance for morning drizzle with a deepening marine layer as early as Thursday. Modest cooling and moistening trends were evident just about everywhere, but most significant towards the coast where moderate onshore trends is a reverse of trends of previous days, asserting the greater natural cooling effects a recovering marine layer. Heat products for portions of the interior are set to expire this evening with no plans for further extension as cooling trends (especially for morning low temperatures) continue into midweek. Weak ridging aloft will be replaced by weak troughing by Friday with a gradual return to night to morning low clouds and fog that will venture further inland each day save for possible the Santa Barbara South Coast due to an increase in Sundowner Activity beginning Wednesday evening. Breezy northwest to onshore winds are expected during this time and may approach advisory levels for areas prone to northwest to onshore winds such as southwest Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor into the western Antelope Valley and foothills. Increased marine layer presence and earlier and stronger onshore flow will settle daytime highs Thursday and Friday closer to normals with 70s common near the coast, 80s to near 90 for coastal valleys and higher terrain, and 90s further inland. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/117 PM. We have moderate confidence in the extended period with a warm up as early as the weekend but more likely (70-80 percent chance) into early next week due to a building ridge. Low to moderate heat impacts may return by Sunday with a 30-40 percent chance of moderate to high heat impacts and the need associated heat products for at least interior areas by Tuesday of next week. The ridge may squash the marine layer and associated low clouds back to the coast with an uptick of northerly flow Sunday potentially clearing at least south facing coasts. Southwest Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor may reach advisory level northwest winds around the Sunday/Monday time frame, which could locally enhance warming trends such as for the Santa Barbara County South Coast including Santa Barbara City. && .AVIATION...25/1636Z. At 16Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3000 feet and 25 degrees Celsius. High confidence in VFR conditions with lighter than usual winds. There is a 5-10% chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and over KWJF KPMD. Moderate confidence in more low cloud coverage over the region tonight into Wednesday, but generally low confidence in exact coverage and timing. There is a chance for LIFR ceilings and visibility at KSBP (30%) KSMX (50%) KSBA (10%). There is a chance for IFR conditions at KOXR (30%) KCMA (20%) KSMO (40%) KLAX (40%) KLGB (50%). Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 04Z. There is a 50% chance of ceilings tonight, forming as early as 06Z or as late as 12Z. Moderate confidence in IFR conditions if ceilings form. SE winds are likely 09-15Z, but high confidence in winds staying under 8 knots. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through Wednesday with seasonal winds. && .MARINE...25/846 AM. Patchy dense fog will cover more of the area tonight and Wednesday, with a possibility of being dense especially off the Central Coast. There is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts this tonight in the Outer Waters (offshore waters of the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island). Otherwise high confidence in quieter than usual conditions into Wednesday. Northwest winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday. High confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters, with a 20-40% chance of low-end gale force winds (highest chances well off the Central Coast). For the nearshore waters, the is a 40-60% chance of SCA winds along the Central Coast (afternoon and evening hours) and a 20% chance for the western Santa Barbara Channel. Higher chances on Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken Friday and Saturday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-344-345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...RK MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox