029
FXUS63 KLSX 051916
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through Friday before chances increase (30-
  60%) Friday night into Sunday, with the greatest chance across
  southeast Missouri on Saturday.

- Temperatures will be near or just below normal into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The cold front that has slowly moved across the CWA today is the in
the process of moving east of the area.  As it does, it is taking
the last of the showers with it.  The clouds will also clear out of
the area by early this evening as drier air moves into the area. The
HREF continues to show the area in northwest flow aloft with none of
its members producing rain through tomorrow night.  The surface flow
will remain from the west-northwest as a surface low remains over
the northern Great Lakes.  This will keep a relatively cool and dry
flow of air into the area which will continue to favor near normal
temperatures for early June.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The dry weather will continue into Friday as the global models show
a large area of high pressure moving across the Mississippi Valley.
Rain chances will increase as we go into the weekend as a couple of
troughs move across the area in northwest flow aloft, though there
is increased differences between the deterministic models with the
timing and depth of these troughs. For now, there is reasonable
agreement that a MCS will move across the southern part of the CWA
late Friday night into early Saturday followed by a cold front later
in the day.  Rain chances Saturday night and Sunday will be confined
to the southern half of the CWA closer to the slowly exiting front
while early next week still looks dry.  I have some low chances
(20%) by next Wednesday when the global models are showing another
trough dropping southeast out of Canada.

Temperatures will stay close to normal through the middle of next
week with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.  Confidence in the
temperature forecast is medium to high given the NBM IQR of 5-7
degrees.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High MVFR and low VFR ceilings at the St. Louis area terminals
should clear out be mid afternoon. Ceilings at JEF will clear out
very early in the period. Otherwise dry and VFR conditions are
expected with west to northwest winds at 10 knots or less.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX