Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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691 FXUS64 KLUB 251858 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant southwesterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Hi-res models this afternoon have precipitation across the NW portions of the area just shy of 00Z and are also depicting a weakly organized grouping of storms moving into the Childress area and points southward after 01Z. Ingredients (dewpoints in the upper 60s and HREF mean SBCAPEs of near 1000 J/kg) will be in place for storms to become strong with an isolated severe or two if the activity focuses across the western South Plains. The main impacts will be strong winds, locally heavy rainfall and hail up to one inch. SPC has included areas north of Lubbock in a marginal (1 out of 4) risk for this activity. Tonight`s low temperatures will fall into the 70s area wide with mostly clear skies. Tomorrow strong solar insolation under sunny skies will aid in temperatures climbing above the century mark across the entire area, with the Rolling Plains seeing temperatures as high as 104F. Increased temperatures in combination with elevated dewpoints will create heat index values over 105F across the portions of the Rolling Plains tomorrow...will likely need a Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Heat is the story of the week, with a major upper level ridge moving overhead for the majority of the upcoming week, transitioning into a more zonal flow by Friday as a upper-level trough moves through the Northern Plains. Strong positive temperature anomalies are expected to accompany this ridge, along with above average moisture with dewpoints remaining in the low 60s for the forecast period. This can be primarily attributed to the southerly surface winds that persist for the foreseeable future. Most of the Caprock will be pushing triple digit heat index values until Saturday, where temperatures will lower slightly through the weekend and into early next week. Off the Caprock, heat index values will be easily into the triple digits, with a heat index of 105 or greater expected until Sunday. Thursday and Friday will be the hottest of the period, occurring right before the ridge transitions into a more zonal pattern. Luckily, storm chances exist on Wednesday and Saturday, which may bring some relief to these hot temperatures. Wednesday afternoon storms may develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico. Weak north northwest flow aloft will give way to slow storm motion. The upper ridge Wednesday evening will slide southward with a weak shortwave that may help to push storms into the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Any storm that develops will be capable of strong wind gusts with a very dry and well-mixed boundary layer. Storm chances increase again Saturday thanks to modest dewpoints in combination with surface convergence along a trough that develops in New Mexico. Potential storms could be aided by the possibility of a shortwave trough that move through. Storm coverage remains uncertain, however likelihood of precipitation is highest in the northwest area of our domain, where a surface front may stall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. There is a slight chance TS could reach KCDS and KPVW this evening, and an outside chance for KLBB. Confidence remains too low to insert a mention at this time, but check back for future updates. Any clouds accompanying possible TS expected to dissipate overnight. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...28