Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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911 FXUS64 KLUB 071720 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Though they have weakened significantly, storms are continuing to develop behind a gust front which is nearing the southern border of the FA as of 130 AM. Some of these storms are still producing heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 45 mph. These storms will likely continue for at least the next couple of hours as they are being sustained by a LLJ. These storms will also need to be monitored for flooding potential due to high rainfall rates and slow forward motion. The upper high will move slightly eastward today and become centered over the FA. This will allow for afternoon highs to be similar to yesterday and average near the century mark. Models bring an upper shortwave across the northern edge of the upper high (across the Central Plains) late this afternoon into the evening and develop storms once again across central New Mexico in to southeastern Colorado/southern Kansas. Models are struggling with potential convective development with the GFS being the most bullish. The GFS decays convection as it moves into our northern zones, but the setup appears to be similar to storms currently pushing through the FA as another LLJ will be present overnight tonight and could help sustain night time convection. The one major difference is the upper high that will be directly overhead and may help suppress convection. For now PoPs will be kept out of the forecast for tonight, but there is an overall non-zero chance for additional convection. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Confidence is above normal regarding the overall pattern through early next week complete with rain chances returning this weekend and continuing into Monday. Friday night opens with an upper high transiting from central Texas to the northern Gulf Coast by Saturday afternoon. In the wake of this high, improved moisture recovery aloft will commence with PWATs returning to 1" or greater by Sunday just in time for a slow-moving cold front. Precip chances actually begin as early as Saturday evening across our NW zones near a pre- frontal surface trough aided by a weak impulse in westerly flow. Much better PoPs remain in the offing starting Sunday afternoon and peaking overnight as the cold front encounters very moist PWATs up to 2" off the Caprock. Heavy rainfall appears reasonable in this largely anemic westerly flow regime. Cool and moist NE flow following FROPA will bring about a much cooler Monday with lingering rain chances under cyclonic NW flow. Farther west meanwhile, upper ridging over the Four Corner will pinch off another subtropical high that should expand our way through midweek complete with a return to hot and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A few VCSH/TS will continue to threaten KPVW for the next hour or so. Otherwise, expect gusty south to southwest winds to prevail through the afternoon and evening before diminishing slighlty after sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...12