Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
969 FXUS64 KLUB 131900 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The main story for the forecast revolves around the ridge currently occupying the southern Great Plains which will shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves in from Southern California. As this feature moves across the southern Rocky Mountains, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur, forming an area of low pressure northwest of the Texas Panhandle. High temperatures for both today and tomorrow are expected to stay in the mid to upper 90s, with dewpoints hovering around 55-60F on the Caprock and slightly higher in the Rolling Plains. Due to the surface low forming to the northwest of the CWA and the high pressure to the east, southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to persist for the forecast period, contributing to slightly lower temperatures for Friday afternoon. The forecast is expected to remain dry into tomorrow afternoon; however, storm chances are expected to increase heading into Friday night across the western South Plains, which will be outlined in the long term discussion. Fenske, Oz, Watson && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A mid/upper level short wave trough will move to the Four Corners by end of day Friday and then out across Colorado and northern New Mexico. This should help keep alive and organize convection that develops on the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico with a good chance that the southern end of the MCS moves across the northwestern part of the forecast area mid to late evening. The supporting trough is progged to move across the Panhandle on Saturday potentially offering some support for any convection able to fire in a zone of cooler mid level temperatures and modest low level convergence near the surface reflection of the trough across the northwestern/north central counties. This setup comes with less certainty in relation to ability to convect with slight chance PoPs generally favored in the afternoon and evening period. Sunday to Wednesday will see upper level ridging return overhead, it being the southwestern extension of strong and expansive high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic while a broad trough develops over the intermountain West. This will leave the forecast area along the interface between weak upper level flow associated with the ridging and southwesterly, cyclonic flow from Baja California across New Mexico to the northern Plains. This will leave the potential for diurnally-driven convection near the lee trough and/or in an area of 850-700mb theta-e ridge axis. That potential appears to be higher Tuesday and Wednesday when upper trough edges farther eastward as the main energy begins to lift eastward across the northern Rockies. NBM has responded with some slight chance PoPs across northern counties both afternoon/evenings which seems reasonable given the scenario. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR prevails for the next 24 hours. South-southwesterly winds will back to the southeast this afternoon at around 10 kt. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...09