Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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968 FXUS64 KLUB 201125 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Mid level ridging extends from New Mexico to the Ohio Valley early this morning with the ridge axis lying over the forecast area with little movement expected to it. However, low to mid level moisture is high with progged soundings reflecting a nearly saturated profile up to around 400 mb before drying out above that while the temperature profile is moist adiabatic. Farther to our south T.S. Alberto will come ashore on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville and will move quickly inland with an extension of its trough and moisture working northward through southwest Texas. Models continue to show scattered showers and isolated thunder moving across mainly the southwestern third to half of the forecast area late morning through afternoon while lingering low to mid level moisture weakly capped aloft potentially leading to additional scattered showers and isolated thunder in a somewhat typical West Texas nocturnal and tropical setup. Progged soundings show PWATs upwards of 1.67 inches across the southwestern zones, but modest CAPE values of less than 500 J/kg suggest most of that precipitation potential will be limited. Temperatures will be relatively cool again today due to low to mid cloud cover and persistent moist southeasterly low level flow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will end across the far southwestern Panhandle Friday morning. Some minimal PoPs have been retained in this same area for Sunday evening near a weak upper wave, however hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail across much of the area as a ridge strengthens to the west. High temperatures will gradually increase from the low 90s on Saturday to near 100 by early next week. NBM PoPs rise to chances of showers and storms next Wednesday and Thursday. Although they have been unchanged in the current forecast given the inherent uncertainty this far out, they may be a bit optimistic as upper heights would indicate a strongly capped environment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 An upper level disturbance of tropical origin will bring mid cloud to the area through the TAF period, some areas of stratus with MVFR ceilings (favored at KLBB over the other two sites), and some scattered showers and the outside chance of a TS (again, favored at KLBB). Will keep precip mention out at this time but will insert an MVFR ceiling at KLBB. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07