Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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731 FXUS64 KLUB 130517 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua and New Mexico is strengthening this afternoon and should slowly build eastward throughout the period, resulting in rising heights aloft over the CWA. At the surface, a high is moving east of the CWA today, leaving southerly surface flow in its wake. Tonight, the lack of clouds will allow temperatures to cool to the mid to upper 60s near sunrise. 850mb relative humidity guidance signals the potential for low clouds tomorrow morning moving from south to north across the Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s create the potential for fog in these areas, similar to this morning`s conditions. The building ridge aloft will allow afternoon highs on Thursday to warm to the mid to upper 90s with light winds out of the south. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A mid/upper level through will bring a chance for thunderstorms mainly to the northwestern third of the forecast area Friday evening and northern counties Saturday afternoon and evening as it lifts from the Four Corners late day Friday to the central Plains end of day Saturday. Convective initiation Friday afternoon is expected to occur on the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico and then sweep to the east and northeast that evening. There remains a decent chance that the end of this line or area of convection will move across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Enough uncertainty exists to keep PoPs below the likely category. Convective initiation on Saturday afternoon looks pretty iffy with no dryline to focus low level convergence and generally dependent upon destabilization due to cooler mid level temperatures associated with the low amplitude upper trough. NBM is hanging onto slight chance PoPs for this time period and will continue with them for now given the uncertainties. Upper level ridging takes over behind the departing trough and is progged to remain overhead. Warmer than normal temperatures will result, and no meaningful low level focus for diurnally-driven thunderstorms will keep PoPs at 10 percent or below through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS and visbys will approach from the southeast but are expected to remain out of the terminals early Thursday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01