091
FXUS64 KLUB 160012
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
712 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Current conditions across the FA are quiet and warm with most
stations reporting temps of at least 87 as of 1 PM. Temps are only
expected to warm by a few more degrees before sunset. Decent
surface moisture remains with dewpoints mostly in the low 50s to
mid 60s. The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will continue
digging southward this evening and into tonight. The upper low is
currently aiding in terrain induced convection across central New
Mexico. This convection is expected to push slightly eastward this
evening into northeastern New Mexico and possibly the Texas
Panhandle. There is a very slight possibility for convection to
enter our northern zones, but the window will be short lived. The
only upper support for storms is very weak diffluence. Tomorrow
will not be too dissimilar from today. The upper ridge will build
slightly, but a slight decrease in thicknesses will help keep high
temps almost unchanged from today. The building ridge will also
help to suppress convective chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The extended forecast remains largely unchanged and features warm
temperatures (though not quite as hot as recently) and periodic
thunderstorm chances. The upper low discussed in the short term will
settle over the Great Basin tomorrow before ejecting northeastward
and emerging over the northern High Plains midweek. Quickly on its
heals, another upper low will drop into the larger western CONUS
trough, pivoting over the Great Basin on Thursday. This spring-
like pattern will provide a prolonged period of southwesterly flow
aloft over the southern High Plains. Large scale lift with the
initial wave will graze the region Tuesday evening, providing good
thunderstorm chances, especially for our northwestern/western
zones. This activity could affect much of the southern Texas
Panhandle and western South Plains, but will struggle to make it
too far east, with the Rolling Plains least likely to see any
measurable rain.

Thereafter, a surface trough and dryline will provide a focus for
potential late afternoon and evening convection Wednesday and
Thursday. However, lacking large scale support, any storms will
likely be spotty/isolated, at best. Should a storm manage to get
rooted through the middle part of the week, decent deep layer shear
and modest instability could support some organization. Eventually,
thunderstorm chances will increase and expand from west-to-east late
Friday into Saturday as the next iteration of the western upper low
is expected to eject over the central High Plains and provide larger-
scale support locally. Rain chances could linger into Sunday if the
slower solutions come to fruition, before cooler and drier
conditions infiltrate the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Thunderstorms near KCDS are expected to slowly diminish around
sunset this evening with VFR conditions prevailing the next 24
hours. As winds diminish this evening, the wind direction is
expected to shift southwesterly at KLBB/KPVW though speeds will be
sufficiently light so as to not receive an explicit mention in the
TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26