Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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740 FXUS64 KLUB 091111 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper ridging will continue to dominate to our west today with the center of the upper high settled near the Four Corners. A weak cold front currently draped across the central Texas Panhandle will push into our northern zones by late morning and through our southern zones by the afternoon. This will help to cool high temps this afternoon into the upper 80s/90s. The upslope flow will aide with convective development along the higher terrain of New Mexico by the late afternoon. Models continue to be in agreement with convection developing as a weakness in the upper high passes overhead. Outflow from the storms will push eastward with convection developing along the boundary, and should move into our western zones around midnight. Convection should be able to sustain itself through most of the night and eventually make it to our eastern zones before sunrise. The threat for severe storms is very marginal, with severe winds and hail up to one inch in diameter being the primary threats. Heavy rainfall will also be possible and, with slow forward speed, could lead to localized flooding. These storms will also help to cool overnight temps into the low to upper 60s area wide. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tonight`s complex of storms is forecast to be departing the Rolling Plains by sunrise Monday ahead of cool and stable E-NE surface flow. Soundings depict a healthy layer of stratus loitering for much of the day which casts doubt on additional precip chances considering we`ll be in between Monday night`s departed shortwave trough and a developing upper low across northern New Mexico. Opted to shave NBM`s PoPs a bit during the day for the overall lack of ascent, yet with PWATs holding between 1 and 1.5 inches any little ripple aloft in westerly flow could be enough for more storms. If any clearing materializes Monday afternoon, it stands a better chance near the TX-NM border ahead of the upper low rotating slowly southeast. Models and short term ensembles are in good agreement with this sequence supporting our next greater round of storms Monday evening across our W-NW zones, yet NBM`s PoPs are mysteriously underdone for this overwhelming signal and are therefore being rejected. As the upper low crawls southeast to near our NE zones Tuesday afternoon, the brunt of PoPs will focus along and ahead of the low`s track with some potential for additional development farther west along the trailing trough axis. NBM again looks too dry for this setup, so Tuesday`s PoPs were nudged higher. Monday and Tuesday`s biggest concern is additional heavy rain and localized flooding from rich PWATs and mostly weak flow. Heights and temps rebound by Wednesday and PoPs dry out as a subtropical high emerges just to our west. This ridge may prove short lived as a cutoff low initially near Baja tracks E-NE by the end of the week while bringing low thunder chances back to parts of the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Convection will begin to move into the region before 00Z and may begin to affect LBB and PVW around 00Z. Convection will be possible at PVW and LBB through most of the night. Convection will be possible at CDS starting around 06Z. The primary threats will be winds up to 55 knots and heavy rainfall. VIS and CIGs may be reduced to IFR in convection. VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...51