Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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800 FXUS64 KLUB 080509 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1209 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge and associated high pressure system over portions of West Texas this afternoon. Minor perturbations within the flow in addition to residual moisture have allowed streamer showers and thunderstorms to continue through the late morning and early afternoon across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, the short term forecast looks to remain hot and dry as the center of the upper level ridge moves over the South Plains region early this weekend. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected to continue and influence southwest surface winds across the forecast area. As the pressure gradient tightens we can expect winds to become breezy across the region through Saturday around 10 to 20 mph, with the strongest winds across the Rolling Plains. This southwest flow in addition to increased thickness values and relatively clear skies will work to boost temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits. Precipitation chances begin to increase as we head into the evening and overnight hours on Saturday as the center of the upper level ridge shifts eastward and disturbances in the flow aloft prevail. Forcing for ascent looks to remain farther north across the TX/OK Panhandles, therefore NBM silent PoPs have been maintained for early Saturday evening. To read more about late Saturday evening into overnight precipitation chances refer to the long term discussion down below. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Adequate moisture and a 500mb shortwave embedded in zonal flow aloft will provide a slight chance for precipitation Saturday evening and overnight across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Weak flow aloft is expected to yield slower moving thunderstorms that should reach the CWA by the overnight hours if they can remain intact. Inverted-v soundings indicate a threat for damaging winds with these storms. On Sunday, a 500mb shortwave located over Baja California will eject towards the area as a weak front stalls over the far southern Texas Panhandle. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow is expected to maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s throughout the day. Upslope flow should help initiate convection on the high terrain of New Mexico during the afternoon and early evening hours. Into the overnight hours Sunday, westerly flow aloft behind the shortwave should push convection into the area, becoming linear over time. PWAT values above the 90th percentile present a risk for heavy rain and flooding with these storms. Monday`s environment relies heavily on the outcome of convection on Sunday. However, if rain moves east of the forecast area and clouds clear early on, more favorable upper-level dynamics will provide support for storms to propagate to the southeast across the South and Rolling Plains Monday night. Precipitation chances decrease into midweek as a ridge builds over New Mexico, which should keep the area warmer and drier overall. /Fenske && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms may affect CDS within the next two hours, but no significant issues are expected. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...51