Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
114 FXUS64 KLUB 060757 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The upper pattern isn`t much to write about this morning as a broad dome of high pressure jostles east toward New Mexico resulting in rising heights and anemic northwest flow over much of our area. The lower levels meanwhile turn more interesting thanks to a fetch of moist southerlies aiding in PWATs around 130 percent of normal and a weak cold front forecast to settle near I40 later this afternoon. The airmass along and immediately south of this front should become moderately to strongly unstable later this afternoon with MLCAPEs pushing 2000-3000 J/kg under negligible capping. With highs near or just above the century mark, convective temps should have little trouble in garnering storm development near the front. Given ample DCAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg from inverted-V profiles and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, constructive outflows should fuel some degree of upscale growth into an MCS that tracks south over much of our forecast area late this afternoon and evening. One factor that may help sustain convection after sunset is a modest theta-e ridge and LLJ expanding over the South Plains in response to low- level winds backing SE and moistening. NBM`s PoPs remain too soft for this otherwise favorable setup, so precip chances were raised across the board. Severe mention was added to our northern two rows of counties where linear modes are most likely with an attendant threat for downbursts. Even as storms inevitably wane overnight, convective debris should blanket much of the region and keep lows on the mild side. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Triple digit high temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday as a ~592dam H5 ridge remains centered over Texas and fairly robust surface troughing to our north results in strong southerly surface flow. Although deep mixing will result in a relatively dry surface airmass both Friday and Saturday afternoons preventing daytime storm development locally, several shortwaves transiting along the top of the upper ridge will result in convection over northeast NM and the TX Panhandle which may sneak southward into our area during the evening. The potential for this is low on Friday, but increases on Saturday evening as an outflow-enhanced cool front may serve as a focus for convection to spread a bit further into the South Plains region. Behind this front and any Saturday evening storms, temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday and especially Monday as the core of ridging aloft shifts to our south and a more unsettled upper pattern takes shape. Most guidance now shows a few fairly substantial shortwave disturbances transiting over our area within quasi-zonal to northwest flow aloft during the early week period, which would result in much better chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. For now, model spread requires PoPs to remain broad-brushed in both space and time through much of the early week period, but storm chances look to remain highest during the evening/overnight hours. The pattern then trends warmer and drier during the middle of next week as another upper ridge builds overhead in advance of a Pacific cutoff low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR with chances for TS by early evening at CDS and PVW. This activity may drift south to LBB toward sunset, although most indications are for TS to be dissipating by this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93