771
FXUS64 KLUB 120710
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
210 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The recent rainfall will not be enough to keep down temperatures
from the oppressive subtropical ridge building into the southwestern
CONUS today. This will result in quickly rising heights/thickness
values and thus warming temperatures. Temperatures today will be
close to or just below seasonal averages. Southerly low level flow
will likely create isolated convection off the mountains in eastern
New Mexico. But weak steering flow will keep this activity to the
west of the area through the evening. A morning of low stratus and
fog is not expected for Thursday morning with winds more out of a
southerly direction rather than southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper low west of Baja will kick the upper high eastward from the
Four Corners with the high being centered over the FA by late
tomorrow night. The upper low will transition to an open wave trough
as it moves across the Desert Southwest and continues kicking the
upper high eastward towards the northern GOMEX. Models have trended
with bringing the upper trough on a more southerly track as it
approaches eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This also brings
thunderstorm chances southward with the NBM bringing likely PoPs
into our northwestern zones Friday evening. While chances are higher
for thunderstorms to move into the central and even southern Texas
Panhandle, confidence is not high enough at the moment for likely
PoPs and have been lowered to high-end chance. Upper troughing will
dominate the western CONUS this weekend into early/mid next week.
Models are in decent agreement with having an embedded upper
low/shortwave over Idaho and Montana Monday/early Tuesday with an
associated surface low stretching along the Foothills into the
Northern Plains. This upper low will tighten the surface gradient
across much of the Great Plains and allow for breezy conditions
Monday into Wednesday. Though beyond the forecast period, models
diverge greatly by Wednesday into late week. The ECMWF quickly
brings a strong blocking high over the Central Plains that dominates
the southern half of the CONUS. The GFS brings a front southward by
mid week as the upper trough moves across the Northern Plains. The
front mixes with moisture from a remnant tropical system to develop
widespread heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Favorable conditions will exist for low CIGS and visbys at all TAF
sites early Wednesday morning. However, the degree of restrictions
is still highly uncertain. Lowered flight conditions may be more
patchy making the forecast increasingly difficult. At the moment,
IFR is expected at least at KLBB and KPVW with possible LIFR for a
time period this morning. If these lowered conditions do form,
they will likely dissipate around 15Z or so.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01