Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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855 FXUS64 KLUB 111731 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Our wet and unsettled pattern will draw to a close later today as a slow-moving upper low bids farewell to the region. Water vapor imagery and regional radars at 3 AM showed this low`s circulation near Dimmitt with a primary axis of ascent to its E-SE where numerous storms were underway. This lift corresponds with a zone of PVA which will serve to tug the low over the Rolling Plains later this morning and finally out of our CWA by this afternoon. Despite the low`s departure and overall downturn in stronger ascent, boundary layer heating this afternoon with the loss of morning stratus will fuel modest CAPE sufficient for at least spotty showers and some storms as far west as the eastern South Plains. NBM remains dry west of the low which doesn`t fit this setup, so isolated storms were added through the afternoon. Storms should drop off our scope this evening with the loss of heating all the while heights slowly rise overnight in NW flow. Highs today were trimmed in those areas that saw heavy rainfall of 2-4" in recent days, but otherwise NBM`s temps look good through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Much of the long term forecast will be dominated by an upper high. The upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners tomorrow before being kicked eastward by an upper low Thursday, with the upper low being centered over the FA Thursday into Friday. Despite having the upper high overhead, temps should generally stay below the century mark thanks to abundant surface moisture. The upper high will also suppress most organized convection, but pop-up thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through the week if any weakness moves around the upper high. This is typical during the summer, especially when moisture is readily available, and it is very difficult for models (especially global models) to pick up this type of convection. Chances are low enough, however, to keep PoPs below mention and be evaluated on a day by day basis. The upper low is progged to transition to an open wave as it moves into Colorado late Friday and will continue kicking the upper high eastward towards the northern GOMEX coast. The upper shortwave trough is also progged to pass far enough north of the FA to keep the us dry and convection to our north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 MVFR CIGS will continue to improve back to VFR through the afternoon as low clouds begin to diminish with daytime heating. Confidence still remains far too low on isolated thunderstorm development in the vicinity of KPVW and KLBB this afternoon, therefore no TAF mention was made. VFR CIGS will then be threatened once again by MVFR conditions as we head into the early morning hours Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...12