Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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380 FXUS64 KLUB 192334 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The forecast area remains positioned under a mid/upper level ridge axis sandwiched between a notable inverted easterly wave/tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico and an area of broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the western CONUS. At the surface, an outflow boundary from morning convection over the TX Panhandle was positioned roughly along a line from Tucumcari NM to just north of Lubbock to Lawton OK. Models have handled this feature poorly thus far and the boundary has made steady southward progress through the day, but it now appears to be slowing and will likely stall somewhere across or just south of our forecast area by this evening. As broad midlevel subsidence beneath the ridging aloft becomes more pronounced, the shallow cellular convection along and ahead of the outflow boundary earlier today is expected to quickly diminish with time through the rest of this afternoon. Most of the region is currently expected to remain dry through tonight, with the exception being the far SW TX Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains where convection off the NM high terrain may approach within weak southwesterly flow aloft. This is looking less likely than prior forecasts given the magnitude of subsidence east of the TX/NM state line, but will maintain mentionable PoPs over the SW Panhandle given the lingering presence of the boundary and stronger low level flow in this area. Tonight, inverted upper troughing associated with the Gulf tropical system will begin shifting westward while an impressive plume of deep layer moisture pivots over our region. Substantial low level theta-e advection within continued southeast flow may result in a resurgence of isolated showers late this evening along and east of I-27, but this signal is still not strong enough to introduce shower mention and will therefore keep PoPs silent in this area for the time being. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon with guidance in good agreement depicting a series of vorticity maxima shifting overhead during the daytime hours. Overall, marginal forcing is expected to keep coverage of showers and storms scattered at best with highest PoPs generally west of I-27 and along the TX/NM state line. The heavy rain potential appears limited as forecast soundings depict meager instability with MUCAPEs likely less than 500 J/kg. However, PWATs of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches may support brief downpours within any stronger convective cores which do manage to develop but overall most locations are expected to only see rainfall totals of one tenth of an inch or less. Precipitation will decrease in coverage from east to west Thursday evening with dry conditions returning by early Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Main theme for the long term forecast is the return of warmer weather as upper-level ridging dominates our forecast through next week. The center of the ridge will be located near the Tennessee Valley on Friday but as the moisture associated with the tropical system moves out of our area, more sunshine will help to warm temperatures to near 90 degrees across the Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle with mid to upper 80s across the rest of the area. The ridge will retrograde back across the forecast area this weekend allowing for even sunnier skies and a gradual warm up in temperatures back into the 90s area wide. Center of the ridge will end up west of the forecast area early next week however with thickness values continuing to increase high temperatures will also continue to warm into next week with upper 90s to lower 100s being prevalent once again for much of next week. This pattern will place us within northwest flow aloft so there is a slight chance for some evening/overnight precipitation to move from the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico into the far southern Texas Panhandle however confidence on this activity actually making it into our forecast area remains low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Ceilings should hold at VFR through Thursday on very moist SE winds. Can`t rule out a few -SHRA at any point, although these are unlikely to impact CIGs or visbys. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...93