401
FXUS64 KLUB 250851
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
351 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Not a lot of change in the overall pattern is noted over the region
for today and tonight relative to the previous 24 hours. Upper level
high pressure remains anchored over New Mexico and Arizona. A few
subtle changes include the potential expansion of the ridge
northward over Colorado which would favor a more northerly mid level
flow over the western counties while farther east across the eastern
half of the forecast area should retain a bit more of a westerly
component to its mid level flow. This would come into play should
thunderstorms develop in the low level theta-e ridge axis extending
from east-central New Mexico to the western Texas Panhandle and the
along a weak frontal boundary that could make its way into the
Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles. Resultant mid level flow
combined with expected surface regime would favor a south to
southwest movement for western storms and south to southeast for
storms that form farther eastward along the surface front or even
south of that in a convectively unstable airmass (inhibition
allowing). The forecast has handled the western convection well for
several days, but CAMs have just recently begun suggesting the other
area of concern as having an okay chance of maturing into a long-
lived MCS. Will add a slight chance mention to the northeastern
quadrant of the forecast area for the 00-06Z time frame.

Regarding today`s heat, there could be a slight uptick in
temperatures relative to yesterday, especially to the west as areas
to the east will be offset some by increased low level moisture with
dew point temperatures 24-hour delta of 3-5 degrees. This combo will
favor a period of 2-4 hours where heat index values reach 105-107
degrees, particularly along the Prairie Dog Town Fork from the mouth
of Palo Duro Canyon through Childress County. The areal extent of
the advisory issued yesterday afternoon looks fine at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Major headline of the extended forecast is that the
heat is on! The upper level ridge and 595mb dam associated high
pressure is forecasted to be centered over central New Mexico
Wednesday morning. The upper level high will begin to extend
eastward into portions of the Texas Panhandle Thursday, then
flattening by Friday as an upper level trough digs through parts of
the northern CONUS. This will allow for weak northwest flow over the
region through Thursday, before more zonal flow aloft prevails
Friday through the weekend.

Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be unseasonably hot for
this time of year in the upper 90s to near 100 on the Caprock, while
areas off the Caprock will see temperatures in the triple digits.
Friday looks to be the hottest of the week, only by a few degrees
compared to Wednesday, as the upper level high positions itself
overhead and winds shift out of the southwest as surface troughing
develops in southeastern CO. Although Friday looks to be the hottest,
Wednesday poses the biggest concern for Heat Advisory level
conditions with increased amounts of moisture expected to remain
locked in place with dewpoints across our eastern zones in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Temperatures look to "cool" down slightly through
the weekend as the upper level ridge breaks down and thickness
values begin to decrease. However, it will still be warm in the mid
to upper 90s.

Northwest flow aloft, a plume of monsoonal moisture wrapping around
the center of the high pressure system, and a weak front pushing
through may be enough forcing for thunderstorms to develop along the
higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Storms would then track
southeastward into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
and northern Rolling Plains. Another chance for precipitation
chances will return for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle on
Friday as a subtle shortwave trough to our north develops and
another weak front passes through. The secondary push of the front
in addition to increased PWAT values above 1.5", as represented by
ECMWF and GFS ensembles, suggest a more moist weekend in store for
the region. However, some deterministic and ensembles depict the
front stalling to our north which would allow for a drier forecast
to unfold across the region. Given weekend PoPs look to remain up in
the air, we will let the NBM PoPs (which are trending downward from
previous runs) go for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07