945
FXUS64 KLUB 010550
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

- Dry weather and above average high and low temperatures will
prevail today and tomorrow.

Today and tomorrow the upper level pattern remains quasi zonal as
high pressure remains parked over north Texas. Meanwhile at the
surface lee side trough and high pressure building near the Great
Lakes will result southerly winds becoming more southwesterly, but
remaining light across the area. Outside of the wind shift,
subsidence and lack of moisture will support another two mostly
sunny days with solar insolation at its max. High temperatures
will remain above average reaching the upper 90s to low 100s.

Tonight continued light winds and mostly clear conditions will lead
to lows falling into the upper 60s to mid 70s on the Caprock and
mid to upper 70s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper ridging will be centered near or just east of the ArkLaTex
region by early Tuesday with guidance continuing to depict a
gradual eastward movement of the ridge through the midweek
period. Despite the center of the ridge being to our east, Tuesday
still looks to be the hottest day of the next week with layer
thicknesses remaining elevated and broad surface troughing over
the TX Panhandle maintaining a downslope component to the surface
flow. Highs Tuesday will consequently reach the upper 90s to low
100s with heat advisory criteria likely being met over the eastern
Rolling Plains. Temperatures will then cool slightly (though
still remain above normal) Wednesday and Thursday as mid/upper
level heights gradually decrease. Regarding precip chances, the
eastward shift of the upper ridge combined with gradually
deepening cyclonic flow over the north-central CONUS will allow a
plume of monsoonal moisture to pivot over eastern NM into the TX
Panhandle during the mid to late week period. This will bring a
return of storm chances each evening initially over the SW TX
Panhandle on Tuesday with these low chances gradually expanding
eastward over most of the South Plains and the rest of the TX
Panhandle Wed/Thu. It still is uncertain just how widespread
showers and storms become Tue-Thu given an overall lack of
coherent forcing, but at least isolated activity looks reasonable
given the moisture and continued robust diurnal heating.
Confidence in storms midweek is highest over the SW TX Panhandle
with considerably lower confidence further south and east.
Northwesterly flow aloft still looks likely to set up late week
into the weekend as large amplitude ridging builds off the CA
coast. This setup and the approach of a cold front on Friday will
bring much cooler temperatures and more widespread rain chances to
the entire region Friday through at least the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Breezy
southerly winds will return to the terminals late this morning
with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...58