Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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830 FXUS64 KLUB 140742 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 242 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Quiet conditions will continue for the remainder of the overnight, with lows bottoming out near 70 and generally light winds. The muggy environment persists today in a moist southeasterly flow, albeit slightly more comfortable than yesterday as dewpoints will be closer to 60. Mostly sunny skies will bring highs into the mid 90s. An upper trough will help break the cap into the evening hours. Currently best chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Model SBCAPE generally shows anywhere from 1000-2000 J/kg in this area. Best lift is also seen here closest to the base of the trough. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, however a few severe storms cannot be completely ruled out. Given the inverted-V sounding profiles across the aforementioned area, strong winds would likely be the greatest threat. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Following the short wave trough that will affect the area today, a secondary trough will be right behind the first one for Saturday afternoon/evening. Low level moisture will continue to surge northward at the lower levels of the atmosphere. A notable axis of higher theta-e air will exist roughly from south to north along the Texas/New Mexico state line. Very deep boundary layer mixing will exist with temperatures roughly in the mid-90s by late afternoon. A narrow axis of uncapped or weakly capped and unstable air may exist near this theta-e axis within deep mixing. Model progs vary a bit but we may see deep mixed layer instability anywhere from 1500-2000 J/kg within this axis of weak or uncapped air. Deep layer shear will be increased over Friday afternoon giving potential to a few organized cells. Temperatures will remain on the warm side of seasonal averages through at least mid-week next week. A cooling off may occur in the second half of next week. For the first half of next week, the upper level pattern will be characterized by a strong upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with a sprawled out ridge extending from the eastern Pacific into northern Mexico. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will continue to dig deeper through the week shunting the east Pacific ridge to the south. This will bring a sloshing dryline each day but will not make much movement eastward. Although we will see substantial instability each afternoon in the moist and warm air, warmer air aloft will likely prevent any convection Sunday and Monday. Chances for afternoon convection will begin to increase starting around Tuesday as upper level winds back to the southwest and flow increases due to the deepening western CONUS trough. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Generally light winds will persist through this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will increase this afternoon, potentially gusting to 20 kts before diminishing in the evening. Clear skies will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19