Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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803 FXUS64 KLUB 112348 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Not much of a change was made to the short term forecast package this afternoon. Current water vapor imagery shows the center of the upper level low lingering across the far southeastern TX Panhandle/ western OK border this afternoon, where it is expected to track eastward and clear the region by this evening. Low clouds have started to diminish early this afternoon and with enough diurnal heating, we could see an isolated thunderstorm develop across portions of the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains where the best instability and residual moisture resides with CAPE profiles around 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm chances will fade through the evening as we lose daytime heating, with a cloudy and dry overnight expected with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Warm, dry, and quiet about sums up the mid-week forecast as the upper level high creeps in from the west and sets up over the West Texas region. After a cloudy start to the morning, clear skies will prevail through the afternoon hours. These clear skies in addition to increased thickness values will work to boost high temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s and mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For the most part the long term portion of the forecast will resemble a typical midsummer type of pattern with upper level ridging overhead and low level flow generally east of south that will keep low level moisture in place across the forecast area. The exception to that will come Friday and Saturday as a mid/upper trough will lift northeastward from the Four Corners to the central Plains. Mid/upper level high pressure that builds northward over the desert southwest on Wednesday will expand eastward on Thursday leading to higher temperatures with mid to upper 90s expected for highs while also likely keeping shower/thunder development at bay. The aforementioned upper trough then begins to eject on Friday. Convective initiation that day is likely to be to our west on the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico with a decent chance of the southern end of this activity staying together long enough and on an eastward enough track to move across the northwestern corner quarter to third of the forecast area that night. The upper trough is then expected to be moving across the Texas Panhandle come peak heating Saturday afternoon. This trough, its slightly cooler mid level temperatures, and the potential for a weak dryline to move into the western counties could result in shower and thunderstorm development as far south as the northern South Plains late day into early evening with better chances and coverage currently expected to be farther north into the Panhandle. Will continue carrying a 20-30 percent mention at this time. At this point upper level ridging moves back overhead and is likely to stay for the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of hot (but not extreme) daytime temperatures and a relatively humid air mass could lead to some air mass/pulse showers and thunderstorms during the afternoons, but the setup does not favor PoPs higher than about 10 percent throughout this portion of the forecast period and will keep a "dry" forecast going for the Sunday through Tuesday period at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 MVFR conditions are expected to return again not long after midnight with an increase in low clouds. There is a potential for some patchy fog to develop with IFR conditions, but confidence remains low on exact timing and location of this development. The chances are highest at PVW/LBB, so a TEMPO group was used for a best guess time window. As the low clouds and patchy fog develop tonight, amendments will be made where necessary. Otherwise, VFR conditions should return by mid morning tomorrow at all three TAF sites. Light east winds will turn to the south overnight and remain southerly through tomorrow. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11