Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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983 FXUS64 KLUB 101905 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Radar imagery from this morning revealed a remnant MCV spinning over the southern Texas Panhandle. Light shower activity and weak thunderstorms continue to linger around the surface low, especially along the eastern and northern flanks due to deformation and ample low level moisture. Midlevel satellite water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows the deepening upper low across eastern New Mexico and midlevel moisture creeping back into southeast New Mexico. Winds will increase aloft with better forcing and slightly better shear for storms this afternoon and evening. At the surface, skies have begun to clear behind the MCV with temperatures warming into the mid 70s. With ample low level moisture in place, a field of cumulus clouds have developed across the southern South Plains where skies cleared out earlier this morning. Meanwhile, where the morning showers continue to persist, temperatures a bit slower to warm. Early afternoon showers and storms are possible along this differential heating boundary, specifically across the northern South Plains. A few of these storms may become strong to marginally severe with weak instability of less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and little bulk shear across this specific area. The main attention getter for storms today will be the shortwave associated with a weak surface low in eastern New Mexico that has already helped to intitate storms along the mountains near Ruidoso. With the surface troughing and the deepening low with increased flow aloft, these storms are expected to maintain strength and impact the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains later this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to golf ball size may be possible with some of the stronger updrafts, but the main threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as the storms become linear and develop into a potential MCS late tonight as they pass over the I-27/US 87 corridor near Lubbock and southward. Storms are expected to be moving slightly faster with the increased steering flow aloft, but all in all storm motion will likely be easterly at 10 to 20 mph. With the recent rainfall last night and this morning, additional rainfall with moderate to heavy rain rates this afternoon and evening may lead to flooding concerns. Precipitation chances will end from west to east through tomorrow morning, but there is a slight chance for some lingering shower activity off the Caprock tomorrow afternoon as the surface low pushes eastward into northwest Texas. Breaking skies tomorrow will help to give way to warmer temperatures into the 80s, especially across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and South Plains where precipitation chances into tomorrow are much less. Elsewhere, temperatures may be a bit trick and struggle to warm above the 70s with lingering cloud cover due to continued shower and thunderstorm activity (as mentioned above). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A general warming and drying trend will take place across the region beginning on Wednesday as the slow-moving upper trough finally exits to our east and a relatively compact upper level ridge axis establishes over the Four Corners region. Dry and mostly sunny conditions will therefore return on Wednesday as large scale subsidence spreads overhead, but high temperatures will remain near or just below normal with a very moist low level airmass still in place. The upper ridge axis will shift a bit eastward Thursday into Friday and center over eastern New Mexico which will bring a return of highs mainly in the middle 90s. Most models also depict some midlevel moisture trapped beneath the ridge which should result in scattered convection developing off the New Mexico high terrain Thursday afternoon. Steering flow will be weak enough such that this activity should remain confined to our west, and will therefore keep PoPs sub-mentionable through Thursday night, but overall we still cannot rule out a stray storm Thursday especially over the SW TX Panhandle. The upper ridge will then de-amplify beginning on Friday as a fairly potent mid/upper level trough quickly lifts northeastward through the desert southwest. Combined with respectable low level moisture still in place locally and PWATs still near one inch, this should result in additional and potentially more widespread storm activity over eastern New Mexico which may drift into portions of West Texas on both Friday and Saturday evenings. Given the long lead time will maintain broad mentionable PoPs through the first half of the weekend, but storm potential still looks highest near and west of the TX/NM state line. Despite this additional storm potential, layer thicknesses will remain elevated which favors a continuation of above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Light rain showers will continue through the afternoon at CDS, while additional showers and storms are expected through the afternoon and evening hours near PVW and specifically LBB. A line of storms may develop this evening and push east across LBB. Confidence was too low on how far north the storms will develop, so PVW was kept out of the thunder mention for now. Lingering showers may persist at CDS during the early morning hours. Low clouds are also expected to return again overnight with ceilings to bounce between VFR to MVFR and periodic IFR through the morning hours tomorrow. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...11