355
FXUS64 KLUB 171945
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An upper level shortwave trough that was located over New Mexico
this morning has begun to eject northeastward, currently passing
over the TXPH. Meanwhile, southerly surface winds have maintained
a moist airmass, indicated by a tongue of higher 850mb theta-e
values over the CWA. A dryline sits on the western edge of this
theta-e relative maximum near the TX/NM state line, and this
boundary may provide lift for thunderstorm development this
evening. Model soundings indicate that by 0Z Tuesday, diurnal
heating in the western South Plains and far southwest could
overcome inhibition from the 850-700mb warm layer noted in this
morning`s observed soundings at AMA and MAF. Should this occur, a
supercell or two may develop along the dryline and propagate ENE
through late evening. Inverted-v soundings and CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg support the potential for severe wind gusts with
any storms, and favorable mid-level lapse rates indicate the
potential for large hail. The storm threat is expected to diminish
after midnight.

Tuesday morning`s lows will be mild, with upper 60s and low 70s
common across the CWA as morning stratus accompanies increasingly
moist southerly surface flow. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s, with the higher temperatures across the western South
Plains. Although the dryline will be present near the TX/NM state
line again tomorrow, rising heights aloft should limit the potential
for thunderstorm development through the short term period.
Nevertheless, if CI occurs, storms would form in the far southwest
 in the late afternoon and move eastward, reaching the I-27
corridor by early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The latest model suite suggests that there could be some isolated
thunderstorm and/or shower activity waning across mainly the
northern half of the forecast area Tuesday evening, before giving
way to a mild and moist night as the southeasterly LLJ begins to
pump GoM moisture up into the Texas South Plains. In fact this
could lead to some areas of low stratus developing by Wednesday
morning.

The moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday as the
forecast area becomes situated between longwave toughing across
the Western States and a low pressure system in the western GoM.
The pressure pattern between these two systems will result in a
low-level ridge axis amplifying from NW to SE across TX, bringing
deepening E-SE, upslope flow. All this will put downward pressure
on temps, and highs should fall back in to the 80s, and perhaps
some locations topping out in the 70s if greater cloud cover
materializes. The cooler temperatures should keep most of the area
capped through the early afternoon, but the initial lift from the
Gulf low may reach the Rolling Plains as early as mid to late
afternoon, resulting in some shower development, possibly
spreading west Wednesday evening.

Thursday appears to hold the best rain chances for the majority of
our forecast area with the tropical system making its closest
approach on its track westward (or west-northwestward). There is
still some degree of spread between the medium-range guidance on
exactly how the system will track, but in general it appears that
the bulk of the lift and deepest tropical moisture will be off to
our south as we remain situated on the northern periphery of the
track. That said, we`ll still see a significant amounts of
moisture flowing into the area. PWATs will range from about 1.25
to 2 inches, or above the 97th %tile for this time of year. We`ll
be lacking much instability with cool temps and a nearly saturated
profile along with any focus for lift aside from the upslope
flow, so this will temper our expectations for heavy rain -
although not completely rule it out at this point. 0.25 to .75
inches of rain appears to encompass much of the potential of this
system, although some higher amounts could still be realized given
how efficient the shower activity should be.

By Friday, the remnant tropical wave should be well west of us,
progressing on west through NM and Far West Texas. However,
elevated moisture should linger across the area, and coupled with
better instability as temperatures recover behind the departing wave,
could lead to scattered showers and t-storms Friday afternoon.

90s should return for the weekend as broad ridging strengthens
from the 4-corners to TX. It`s not totally out of the question
that we could see a few t-storms during the late afternoon and
evening hours Sat and Sun, mainly across the far southeast TX
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains, but it should be dry for
most. Better rain chances may return early next week as the upper
ridge retreats southwestward in the face of additional shortwave
energy moving through the Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon and
evening. Breezy winds should continue throughout the period, with
the occasional 30kt wind gust possible at all terminals. This
evening, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, to develop along the TX/NM state line and move
toward PVW and LBB into the overnight hours. However, confidence
is too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Towards
sunrise, stratus should move into the CWA from the southeast,
producing MVFR conditions at all terminals through mid-morning
Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93/DF
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...DF