534
FXUS64 KLUB 141724
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Quiet conditions will continue for the remainder of the
overnight, with lows bottoming out near 70 and generally light
winds. The muggy environment persists today in a moist
southeasterly flow, albeit slightly more comfortable than
yesterday as dewpoints will be closer to 60. Mostly sunny skies
will bring highs into the mid 90s. An upper trough will help break
the cap into the evening hours. Currently best chances for
showers and thunderstorms look to be across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle. Model SBCAPE generally shows anywhere from
1000-2000 J/kg in this area. Best lift is also seen here closest
to the base of the trough. Widespread severe weather is unlikely,
however a few severe storms cannot be completely ruled out. Given
the inverted-V sounding profiles across the aforementioned area,
strong winds would likely be the greatest threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Following the short wave trough that will affect the area today, a
secondary trough will be right behind the first one for Saturday
afternoon/evening. Low level moisture will continue to surge
northward at the lower levels of the atmosphere. A notable axis of
higher theta-e air will exist roughly from south to north along the
Texas/New Mexico state line. Very deep boundary layer mixing will
exist with temperatures roughly in the mid-90s by late afternoon. A
narrow axis of uncapped or weakly capped and unstable air may exist
near this theta-e axis within deep mixing. Model progs vary a bit
but we may see deep mixed layer instability anywhere from 1500-2000
J/kg within this axis of weak or uncapped air. Deep layer shear will
be increased over Friday afternoon giving potential to a few
organized cells.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side of seasonal averages
through at least mid-week next week. A cooling off may occur in the
second half of next week. For the first half of next week, the upper
level pattern will be characterized by a strong upper ridge over the
eastern CONUS with a sprawled out ridge extending from the eastern
Pacific into northern Mexico. A longwave trough over the western
CONUS will continue to dig deeper through the week shunting the east
Pacific ridge to the south. This will bring a sloshing dryline each
day but will not make much movement eastward. Although we will see
substantial instability each afternoon in the moist and warm air,
warmer air aloft will likely prevent any convection Sunday and
Monday. Chances for afternoon convection will begin to increase
starting around Tuesday as upper level winds back to the southwest
and flow increases due to the deepening western CONUS trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Continued VFR with mostly light S-SE winds. Some TS may approach
PVW overnight but should fall short of the terminal.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93