Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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135 FXUS64 KLUB 261122 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 As the upper level shortwave trough continues to push eastward early this morning, it will swing a very weak cold front through the FA. As of 1:30 AM CDT the front was currently making its way into the northern Texas Panhandle. Models are in agreement with this front entering the FA early this morning and pushing completely through by late morning. Behind the front, westerly winds will begin to veer out of the northwest becoming breezy around 15 to 20 mph. Across the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle winds will begin to diminish through the afternoon. While areas on the Caprock can expect winds to remain elevated as they begin to shift out of the west. The slightly cooler air mass will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previous days. However, you should take the word "cooler" with a grain of salt as warm westerly winds and clear skies will help boost high temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s. Some locations off the Caprock may even see temperatures in the upper 90s to triple digits. As we head into the overnight hours winds will begin to diminish under mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Very few changes to the long term forecast this morning as this week is still shaping up to be an active weather week. Upper-level heights will begin to increase over the forecast area on Monday as a ridge builds into the Great Basin. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will slide through the forecast area Monday morning switching our winds around to the northeast. Despite these northeasterly winds temperatures won`t cool with high temperatures still peaking in the low to mid 90s. Winds will continue to veer through the day as surface high pressure moves into Oklahoma. These southeasterly winds will help to begin the moisture advection from the Gulf back into the forecast area. The ridge axis will expand over the forecast area on Tuesday but Gulf moisture will continue to stream northward into the forecast area. A shortwave should move through the ridge Tuesday afternoon and with the dryline located somewhere across the South Plains convective development is expected. While mid and upper flow won`t be overly strong (wind speeds top out around 50 kts) the wind profile will veer with height which will still allow for effective bulk shear values of around 60 kts. This shear combined with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg will be more than sufficient for supercell development along and east of the dryline. The ridge axis will remain overhead through Thursday morning before shifting east. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday with a dryline remaining over the forecast area and another ripple rotating through the ridge. Convective details are more uncertain due to the previous days convection but another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the overall environment doesn`t change much. Upper-level flow will become southwesterly Thursday through the weekend and with the dryline continuing to hang around our forecast area each afternoon and evening will have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms but the exact details for each day will depend on what happens the previous day in regards to the mesoscale details. /WI && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...12