330
FXUS64 KLUB 230751
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Similar weather expected today as yesterday with the upper level
high positioning itself over the region this afternoon. This will
lead to yet another day of dry and warmer conditions across the FA.
850mb temperatures around 25C to 30C, in addition to clear skies,
rising heights, and southwest surface flow suggest temperatures
slightly above the seasonal normal in the mid to upper 90s, where
locations off the Caprock may even see temperatures in the triple
digits. As we head into the overnight hours, another mild night is
in store with temperatures in the upper 60 across the Caprock and
mid 70s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The center of upper level high pressure will finish its migration
westward by midday Monday, taking up a location over the desert
southwest. The eastern part of the ridge will extend to the middle
Gulf Coast but amplification of the flow over the CONUS will
expand the ridge northward over the Colorado Rockies while see a
trough dig into the southeastern CONUS. A significant upper level
trough will move over the west coast with the bulk of its energy
associated with a closed low over the northern and Canadian
Rockies. This in turn will break down the ridge and shunt it
eastward toward the end of the week/forecast period. The biggest
question this morning is on precipitation potential through the
period with the ability of the atmosphere to convect on the higher
terrain to our northwest the biggest question with the ECMWF
remaining mostly dry while the GFS and WRF-NAM are more bullish
and then more robust with the ability of the convection to move
southeastward into the forecast area. This would be the main
mechanism Tuesday through Thursday before the breakdown of ridge
potentially allows a cold front to make it to the forecast area
with it possibly being the focus for thunderstorms either in the
forecast area or to the west with subsequent translation eastward.
NBM again holding mainly slight chance PoPs across the
northwestern counties during the evening hours still looks
reasonable given the uncertainty. Regarding temperatures, it will
be interesting to see how much a more moist and greener surface
has on temperatures with the increasing heights and thicknesses as
upper level high pressure moves across and then just west of the
forecast area. Forecast heat indices are still near Heat Advisory
criteria (105 degrees) east of the Caprock escarpment several
afternoons. Forecast sensitivity to temperature and dew point
temperature will be key to future heat headlines later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12