499
FXUS64 KLUB 241841
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper air analysis this early-afternoon depicts a high-amplitude
trough digging into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, with an
intense, 250 mb jet streak nosing southward over West Texas as per
recent water-vapor imagery. A baroclinic leaf located within the
upstream tranche of this trough has since become more-disheveled in
appearance owing to the net increase in subsidence/NVA progressing
southward over the west-central Great Plains. Cirrus bands were
collocated with the incoming mid-level cold front that was also
moving southward across the TX PH, and no cumulus have been evident
yet on visible satellite imagery near and north of this front
despite ample heating.

At the surface, the cold front was located north of the I-40
corridor, while the CWA remained within the moist sector, albeit
veered flow, with dewpoints currently in the lower 60s across most
of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. The cold front is forecast to
cross into the extreme southern TX PH in a couple of hours, with its
movement further enhanced by the loss of diabatic heating later this
evening as it clears the CWA by sunset. Despite the plume of
dewpoints in the lower 60s, and favorable surface and low-level
convergence along the southward-moving cold front, PoPs were removed
for this afternoon due to the latter presentation on satellite. A
few TCU will be possible, but dry air entrainment via the rapid
increase in subsident air aloft should undercut any cu field from
morphing into storms.

Pressure rises post-FROPA will yield a brief period of breezy,
northerly winds, before pressure tendencies stabilize and winds
diminish overnight as a weak surface high moves into the TX PH.
Drying of the low-levels post-FROPA will eliminate any potential for
fog tonight, with excellent radiational cooling delivering lows in
the lower-middle 50s on the Caprock and into the lower 60s across
the Rolling Plains. High temperatures were lowered slightly from the
NBM to align with MOS as strong subsidence aloft caps mixing heights
below 700 mb amidst a light, northeasterly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A blocking pattern will persist over the CONUS through the long term
portion of the forecast with an upper ridge located over the Four
Corners northward toward the northern Rockies and a trough over the
Mississippi Valley. This will lead to a persistence-based forecast
with dry, fair sensible weather and near-normal temperatures. NBM
handles the scenario well with no deviation from it at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR prevails for the TAF period. A cold front will move through
the terminals later this evening, shifting winds to the north
while remaining at around 10 kt. Isolated -TSRA will be possible
in the vicinity of KCDS late this afternoon, but coverage is too
limited to include in the TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09