Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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916 FXUS64 KLUB 191127 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A couple of features on the periphery of the region could bring some showers and thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area today and tonight, although overall the chances for precipitation remain somewhat uncertain. To the north of us early this morning is a nearly stationary backbuilding MCS over the northern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle that is remaining rooted to a stationary front and in an area of southwestern mid level flow. Outflow from the MCS will attempt to push front southward, although at this time the model suite is keeping the boundary to the north of the forecast area as a warm, moist low level air mass fed by breezy southeast winds will serve as an impediment to the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, aloft a mid level ridge extending from southwest Texas to the Ohio Valley will build northward and westward with the axis progged to extend from Far West Texas trough North Texas and southern Oklahoma by end of day today. Shifting to convective initiation this afternoon, both the weak frontal boundary across the Panhandle and the higher terrain of central and northern New Mexico are favored as these areas are along an arcing low level instability axis and will have convective focus through convergence or topography. It is possible that the frontal boundary will be able to shift as far south as the northwestern corner of the forecast area on its western end with a slight chance mention looking reasonable. Evening hours will potentially bring New Mexico convection toward the western zones or further southward movement of thunder and/or frontal boundary. However, the placement of the ridge could be a significant hindrance while mid level steering flow will try to keep precipitation to the northwest and north of the ridge axis. Finally, will have to watch the westward easterly wave over the western Gulf of Mexico as it moves inland tonight with the potential for mid level moisture and instability to reach the southern zones of the forecast area late tonight. All of these possible scenarios are far from certain, so have trimmed PoPs some from NBM initialization as previous shifts have done. Have kept the NBM inits for temperatures both today and tonight. However, there is some concern that cloud cover will end up being more transient and less widespread than models and previous expectations indicated which would favor highs today overperforming. This could be offset by the southeasterly surface flow holding in high levels of moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical moisture advection remains likely across much of the area on Thursday as the main low makes landfall over northern Mexico. However, the heaviest rain looks to be well off to the south and expected rainfall totals have dropped from yesterday. The far southeastern TX Panhandle may not see anything, while portions of the South Plains may receive up to a quarter of an inch with localized higher amounts possible within embedded thunderstorms, however even those look to be very isolated and generally confined to the western counties. Showers will gradually taper off through Friday. A mostly uneventful weekend is expected, with warmer temperatures in the 90s returning under a ridge. A few showers and storms are possible across the far southern Panhandle later Saturday as a shallow upper trough moves over the north-central US. Storm chances early into next week look to be minimal as upper heights increase, further capping the environment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 MVFR ceilings associated with stratus moving southward from the Panhandle convective system and as a batch of low level moisture moving northwestward out of the Big Country and Concho Valley should bring a period of lower ceilings at each terminal this morning. Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected with southeast winds becoming breezy again. Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely ring the forecast area this afternoon and tonight with some potential for TS at KPVW and possibly KLBB, but confidence remains low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07