Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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863 FXUS64 KLUB 182004 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Attention early this afternoon remains off the Caprock where a narrow line of showers and thunderstorms was found drifting east from the Highway 83 corridor. Despite some lingering cap in this region, rich moisture advection particularly around 850 mb has managed to force parcels through the lingering inhibition. Recent radar trends as of 230 PM suggest this ascent is waning, but have kept a sliver of low thunder mention across the eastern Rolling Plains through the afternoon. Farther west, the pattern is more interesting as a dryline organizes over eastern NM. Although moisture convergence remains rather subtle along the dryline, the presence of a mesolow near Dora and strong heating/deeper mixing just upstream should bolster ascent along the dryline near or shortly after peak heating. Combined with the H7 thermal ridge shifting off the Caprock in the coming hours, high-based storms should ensue near the TX-NM border near or after 5 PM and shift slowly east within 20 knots of steering flow. Enough veering of winds with height and around 30 knots of 0-6km shear could support some high-based supercells with large hail and modest forcing overall should keep storm coverage isolate to scattered through this evening as storms shift toward the I27 corridor. While the LLJ tonight may be able to sustain this activity after midnight, most guidance including the HREF favors convection diminishing around midnight as it enters our far northeastern zones. Wednesday features rising heights as the western edge of an elongated ridge expands over the region. At the surface, a cold front currently in sern CO and swrn KS should be creeping south through the TX Panhandle in the morning before ultimately stalling near our southwest Panhandle counties during the day. Despite the front, models are keen to keep most of the precip chances mainly north of the boundary given a more hostile convective environment in our area under the 700-500 mb ridge axis. Furthermore, increased low clouds for much of the day should put a damper on high temps further keeping us on the stable side. Opted to shave NBM`s PoPs lower in our far NW counties for the afternoon where mainly 20 PoPs are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Long term forecast remains on track this afternoon with the main feature of interest being the moisture associated with a tropical system in the Gulf. Confidence on the exact track of this system remains uncertain as upper-level high pressure expands from the Mid Atlantic back into Texas. Latest guidance steers potential Tropical Cyclone One south of Texas making landfall in Mexico. This would still allow a slug of moisture to rotate across the forecast area beginning Thursday morning and eventually dissipating by Friday night. Despite the ridging in place aloft, while this moisture plume remains over the forecast area showers and thunderstorms will be possible area wide although the best coverage of rainfall should remain south of our forecast area. This increase in moisture will also help to keep temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days on Thursday as high temperatures only warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The plume of moisture will continue to slide westward on Friday bringing an end to precipitation chances from east to west on Friday. This will keep temperatures cooler on the Caprock once again only warming into the lower 80s while locations east of the escarpment warm into the lower 90s. Ridging will slide back to the west towards the forecast area on Saturday and become situated directly over the forecast area Sunday. This will keep temperatures on the upward climb into early next week as afternoon high temperatures once again peak in the mid to upper 90s. Center of the ridge will continue to slide west early next week which will transition our upper-air pattern to northwest flow aloft which may bring a few more chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area especially the far southern Texas Panhandle. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 MVFR ceilings have since improved to VFR and will soon scatter out from W-E. Chances are looking better for at least ISO TS after 22Z, initially W of PVW and then spreading east through the evening. Low confidence in these impacting PVW, so will keep TS mention absent for now. Better confidence in MVFR stratus returning by Wednesday morning at all sites and lingering for much of the morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...93