Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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347 FXUS64 KLUB 180740 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The strong cap in place will again be the main issue for today`s convective forecast. An upper level ridge extending from the eastern Pacific into northern Mexico will expand to the northeast today resulting in rising heights over the region. However, there may be a few weak short wave troughs moving through the flow as winds back more to the southwest this morning. Some weak upper level divergence is noted in the wind fields this afternoon as wind speeds also increase. Large scale lift will be most prominent in the Texas Panhandle into the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in northeastern New Mexico today with a front sliding down the Central Plains. A dryline will again not make much movement eastward and will end up positioned around the Texas/New Mexico state line. Low level convergence will be decent along the dryline with the greatest convergence in the southwestern Texas Panhandle confident with the weak upper level lift. Despite the rising heights over the area today, mid level temperatures will remain nearly constant. A strong elevated mixed layer will continue to exist overhead today with what seems like a cap made of forged steel. Temperatures at 700mb will continue to hover around +16C. Very deep boundary layer mixing will again occur today. A narrow but strong low level theta-e ridge east of the dryline will be able to pump up mixed layer instability values in excess of 2500 J/kg this afternoon. It remains unclear on whether enough heating will occur to break the strong cap. Expected low stratus later this morning will initially shunt surface heating. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today which may make it even more difficult to obtain convective initiation. But the addition of the background lift may be able to get a few isolated storms going. Therefore, we have added slight chance of storms for the area this afternoon favoring the southern Texas Panhandle. If storms were to develop, they would primarily be capable of producing strong wind gusts with marginally severe hail. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Model agreement is significantly better than last night with regards to the tropical moisture moving through the area Thursday into Friday. Although the system may soon become Tropical Storm Alberto, the QPF values have notably dropped from yesterday, with highest totals well south of our area. Moisture out ahead of the system will begin to make its way in on Wednesday afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, although no severe weather is expected at this time. Thursday remains to be the main event as the northern periphery of the moisture fetch moves across the area. Rainfall totals will increase from northeast to southwest, likely ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible, particularly within embedded storms. Rain will taper to showers late Thursday into Friday, ending thereafter. A series of upper troughs may bring more storm chances to the far southern Panhandle for portions of this weekend and early next week, however much of the area looks to remain quiet, with high temperatures returning to the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Low CIGS will be possible closer to daybreak later this morning. The most likely heights will be within the MVFR range with only a small chance of IFR CIGS at all TAF sites. These low CIGS are expected to remain in all terminals through the remainder of the morning and dissipate early in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon starting west of the terminals. Coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the TAF at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01