Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
116 FXUS61 KLWX 101340 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 940 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A supporting mid-level trough of low pressure will push across the region today. High pressure will build over the area tonight through midweek, leading to dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No changes to the previous forecast. The pressure trough is currently located to the west of the forecast area and is expected to swing through this afternoon, bringing slight chance to chance of precipitation through this evening. Recent satellite imagery shows sunny skies east of the Alleghenies with a cloud deck along and west of the Alleghenies, near the pressure trough. Previous discussion follows... A mid-level trough of low pressure and associated upper level jet streak will move across the region today. A few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder could evolve in parts of the region this afternoon and early evening. The areas that stand a better chance of encountering one of these showers or a thunderstorm would be along and south of I-66 this afternoon, then along and east of I-95 during the early evening. Highs today will be in the middle 70s in the west to lower 80s in the east. Dry conditions will ensue tonight with high pressure building into the region from the west. Lows tonight will be in the middle 40s in the western mountains to the lower 60s along the Chesapeake Bay. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday night with high pressure in control. There will be a weak low and a surface front across far southeastern Virginia and North Carolina. This could lead to a slight chance of showers, mainly in our far southern zones and over to southern Maryland on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday near average with temperatures middle to upper 70s. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer but still relatively pleasant for mid-June with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This period consists of much warmer conditions including a pair of days in the 90s. The peak of these above average temperatures occurs toward the end of the work week. This includes a forecast of 95 to 97 degrees on Friday which would mark the first 95+ degree day of 2024. On average, at the three major airports, the average first 95 degree day occurs during the 3rd to 4th week of June. While a bit early, it is still within a week or two of this average date. The forecast is fairly dry although some shower and thunderstorm chances return on Friday afternoon/evening. An approaching cold front will interact with a hot and somewhat humid air mass characterized by heat indices near the century mark. Global models are not terribly enthused with the rain chances, some of which are even dry with the frontal passage. However, will maintain the 15-20 percent shower and thunderstorm chances. These could increase once the system moves into the convective-allowing model realm of the forecast. In the wake of this front, winds on Saturday shift to northwesterly. While temperatures remain warm with highs in the mid/upper 80s, there will be a decrease in humidity given the wind shift. Surface high pressure stays in control of the forecast for the weekend which keeps conditions dry. Global ensemble means raise heights on Sunday into the following week as an upper ridge settles in. After a weekend in the mid/upper 80s, expect a return to the 90s next week. The Climate Prediction Center Week 2 forecast supports this continued warming trend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions for the terminals today. Any quick or isolated shower that develops near IAD, DCA or BWI could lower ceilings to 2-3kft or visibility to 4SM. Otherwise, these VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight through Wednesday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots today through Tuesday night. Winds light and variable Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect mainly VFR conditions for Thursday and Friday. However, as a cold front tracks through the area on Friday evening, some brief restrictions are possible given the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Overall winds start off out of the south to southwest before shifting to westerly late Friday. && .MARINE... No marine hazards expected today through Wednesday night. Winds northwest around 10 knots today and Tuesday with gusts to 15 knots. Winds less on Wednesday into Wednesday night. An extended period of south- southwesterly winds is likely for Thursday through much of Friday. Some southerly channeling effects are evident in the model output which could support some advisory- caliber winds Thursday evening into the night, and again Friday afternoon/evening. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the waters late Friday with a cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies across the waterways have tanked generally falling into the 0 to 0.50 foot range. Tidal models agree on some snapback occurring today. Some of the more sensitive tidal sites start to near (or reach) Action during the higher of the high tide cycles by Tuesday morning. However, no coastal flooding is anticipated through Thursday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/KLW MARINE...BRO/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO